Mls · resolved market
MLS: Will Portland beat Real Salt Lake?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9f70a47afd536c03d00246e19c5d81a5d59eb00785da06ec733d82302c9256b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 56c | 9,649$5,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,219.72 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.2wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 44c | 8,011$3,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,537.95 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 43c | 5,779$2,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,480.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9454…6d22backed No | 61c | 1,500$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.78 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed No | 61c | 1,125$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…7e26backed No | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 39c | 930$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.3 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 57c | 745$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.59 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8be5…ffd0backed Yes | 42c | 715$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0b…568cbacked Yes | 42c | 625$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 42c | 599.97$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 56c | 573$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.33 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd92…0ff0backed No | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 46c | 475$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.4 | 145 | 39.3%57 W · 88 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 58c | 466$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59f5…17d7backed No | 58c | 465$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ec…1800backed Yes | 42c | 285$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabaf…1b57backed Yes | 42c | 285$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 57c | 205$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 57c | 174.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 64cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed No | 60c | 112.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 56c | 97$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed No | 59c | 92.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.82 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…c05fbacked Yes | 42c | 90$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc63e…bb09backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 206 | 41.3%85 W · 121 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeacf…ed1dbacked No | 58c | 21.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MLS: Will Portland beat Real Salt Lake?this page
- MLS: Will Portland vs. Real Salt Lake end in a draw?No won
- MLS: Will Real Salt Lake beat Portland?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.