Champions League · resolved market
Will Benfica win on 2025-08-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea9c09911c036cf72cee205e7e942ef52435c20cea62900ef49ccb86c718ffd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefe9…60fabacked Yes | 70c | 5,339$3,718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 30c | 3,286$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.71 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 34c | 2,335$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.5 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8b…23d2backed Yes | 65c | 1,039$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9d63backed Yes | 66c | 615$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…2f83backed No | 34c | 590$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9d…0791backed No | 34c | 410$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 21c | 400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd88…5e93backed Yes | 66c | 385$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 32c | 361.72$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 31c | 250$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed No | 33c | 250$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 61 | 23%14 W · 47 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…1b20backed Yes | 67c | 210.45$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.45 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 31c | 202$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.62 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 33c | 199.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.26per pick | 58cpaid | -51%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed No | 37c | 147.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.57 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 225 | 47.6%107 W · 118 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39ea…f75bbacked Yes | 66c | 136.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9e…00b1backed Yes | 66c | 115.48$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d04…7102backed No | 38c | 106.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 66c | 100.43$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…349cbacked Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 30c | 35.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Benfica win on 2025-08-12?this page
- Will Benfica vs. Nice end in a draw?No won
- Will Nice win on 2025-08-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.