Tennis · resolved market
Wimbledon: Sierra vs. Siegemund (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27667435038e452989f161fe5cb7f55560528351417655ea974f18887cad045e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Siegemund of Sierra, Siegemund
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,362
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf520…0637backed Sierra | 50c | 4,574$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.92 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Siegemund | 52c | 4,330$2,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,074.32 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Sierra | 40c | 3,534$1,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,413.74 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Siegemund | 60c | 1,800$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.86 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Siegemund | 67c | 1,763$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.04 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9c8…44fbbacked Siegemund | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -33%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sierra | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Sierra | 38c | 999.99$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd22c…53e9backed Siegemund | 62c | 967.82$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.82 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Sierra | 38c | 955.38$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.05 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Siegemund | 60c | 718.95$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.97 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Sierra | 38c | 680$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Siegemund | 59c | 666$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.06 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Siegemund | 60c | 600$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1,448 | 48.8%707 W · 741 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Siegemund | 62c | 451$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.38 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda10…ffeabacked Siegemund | 62c | 430.65$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.65 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Siegemund | 61c | 410.26$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 582 | 40%233 W · 349 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Siegemund | 52c | 307$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.06 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Sierra | 40c | 299.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…dde4backed Sierra | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Siegemund | 56c | 255$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.39 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Sierra | 40c | 252.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Sierra | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Sierra | 41c | 245.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.67 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Sierra | 24c | 230$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23b9…4267backed Siegemund | 63c | 225.11$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.29 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Siegemund | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…4fd2backed Siegemund | 62c | 164$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.32 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Sierra | 39c | 153.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +12.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Siegemund | 59c | 153.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa7…04bfbacked Siegemund | 63c | 141.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Siegemund | 54c | 119.09$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Siegemund | 60c | 118.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Sierra | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Siegemund | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 50cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f7…58dbbacked Siegemund | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Siegemund | 63c | 87.3$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88f…987abacked Sierra | 40c | 86.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Sierra | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40f…2fa3backed Siegemund | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Siegemund | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Siegemund | 65c | 61.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Siegemund | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2,348 | 46.5%1,092 W · 1,256 L | +54.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Sierra | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…9f26backed Sierra | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Siegemund | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Siegemund | 61c | 41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Siegemund | 61c | 38.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05e8…4747backed Siegemund | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.