TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Nationals vs. Royals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Royalsof Nationals, Royals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,418
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$205,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,418 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5465…ca9bbacked Nationals66c28,873$19,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,134.45757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick69cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x461f…7a07backed Royals59c26,441$15,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,952.2712043.3%52 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Royals48c20,719$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,719.7429240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Nationals41c10,600$4,346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3461,15149.2%566 W · 585 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nationals25c7,339$1,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,834.791,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Nationals42c5,619$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,359.9825453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7abe…b47ebacked Nationals61c5,207$3,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,179.922852.2%119 W · 109 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals57c5,161$2,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.071,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Royals38c3,889$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,418.532,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Nationals43c3,861$1,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.2270946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Royals50c3,830$1,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,931.0238444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Royals56c3,573$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,572.634550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Royals58c3,500$2,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47060249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Nationals42c2,559$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.8938047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Nationals42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84093240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Royals53c1,896$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.4319852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20de…5b24backed Nationals43c1,814$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.02837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-29.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals57c1,732$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.712,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Nationals42c1,652$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.6323455.6%130 W · 104 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc921…5279backed Nationals31c1,509$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.833636.1%13 W · 23 L-4.3wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-38.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Nationals42c1,458$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.671,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Nationals61c1,384$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.9126650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Royals38c1,344$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.3143946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…63febacked Royals58c1,334$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.17785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick55cpaid+58.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d21…d7cdbacked Nationals43c1,330$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-64.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Nationals42c1,200$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50416349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Nationals49c1,182$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57822948.9%112 W · 117 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d57…d7ffbacked Nationals42c1,111$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$466.595850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54c8…84d8backed Royals57c1,088$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$467.84966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9368…9bcebacked Nationals43c1,065$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.95771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+40.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals41c1,060$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.650843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0814…1f30backed Nationals43c1,035$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Royals58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.488852.3%46 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5555…d3d0backed Nationals31c1,018$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.719550.5%48 W · 47 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Nationals42c1,016$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.6343247.2%204 W · 228 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa737…e0a5backed Royals57c1,012$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Nationals41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41056451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9599…be88backed Nationals1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1025511.8%30 W · 225 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals41c990$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.924547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbc8c…8d36backed Royals57c919$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.17742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c77…b194backed Royals57c895$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.85683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick53cpaid+52%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nationals67c874.63$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5861,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f0b…2305backed Nationals25c765.62$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.418042.5%34 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be9…97ecbacked Royals58c764.17$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.955667.9%38 W · 18 L+6.7wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Royals72c694.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4195930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Nationals42c673$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6615944%70 W · 89 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Nationals41c648$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6844443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Nationals2c590.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.465053.8%19 W · 486 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Nationals36c572.31$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.464,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Royals56c500$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22042452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Royals72c500$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Nationals42c499.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21038249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ce…d9dfbacked Nationals42c499.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9930850%154 W · 154 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Nationals42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20056351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Nationals42c439.98$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.791,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae09…fa6dbacked Royals57c434.97$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.047549.3%37 W · 38 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbb5…5ed9backed Royals58c431.03$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.036243.5%27 W · 35 L-9.4wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-27.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x4e94…6243backed Royals40c400.16$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.2754345.5%247 W · 296 L+14.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Nationals42c351.16$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.531244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Royals58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8321242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Royals58c344$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.481,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Nationals43c300$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Nationals42c299.97$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.993,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals42c299.97$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Royals58c273.78$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.991,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Nationals43c256.52$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.33951.3%20 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb68c…eda5backed Nationals43c253.49$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1092321.7%5 W · 18 L-5.5wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-50.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Royals40c249.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15051334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3839…e2eebacked Nationals30c246.95$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1910544.8%47 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Nationals42c238.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3840548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Nationals42c238.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals43c230$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.92,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Nationals43c220.74$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.921,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcab0…4cd3backed Royals60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809447.9%45 W · 49 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Royals42c200$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11618249.5%90 W · 92 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals52c188.03$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.799,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448a…f2b7backed Nationals43c181.49$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.043151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe913…74fbbacked Nationals44c175.87$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.732839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bf7…cdb7backed Nationals69c173$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.6845749.7%227 W · 230 L+12.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Royals58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.412,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6163…8507backed Royals58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4125551%130 W · 125 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Nationals49c171$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5619934.2%68 W · 131 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ccf…2fedbacked Royals59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4939160.4%236 W · 155 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Royals59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.491,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Royals57c162.81$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.3680680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x60ab…d681backed Royals59c162.71$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.7174356.9%423 W · 320 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Royals42c154.19$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3280955.5%449 W · 360 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Nationals50c150.69$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.148,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Nationals42c150$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6366751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Nationals55c140$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7741751.3%214 W · 203 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Royals48c135.46$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0932754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Nationals43c127.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5578454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4950…0031backed Royals58c121.71$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.125644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4354…571fbacked Royals58c120.69$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6913456.7%76 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6205…19febacked Royals58c120.1$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.442552%13 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6082…6ce2backed Royals57c119.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.618148.6%88 W · 93 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Nationals41c119.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.851,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc655…8467backed Nationals42c111$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6224351.4%125 W · 118 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x282f…ac8dbacked Nationals43c109.3$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4726845.5%122 W · 146 L+1.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.