Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92ecb632d16424f313a03e8faa9a792992d014b7c24c79a93b174cc9a4f6e662
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f5f…a958backed Yes | 24c | 5,830$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4a…8494backed Yes | 24c | 4,170$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…4608backed No | 76c | 3,948$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$947.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…c97bbacked No | 76c | 3,421$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 77c | 2,790$2,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.7 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca32…2128backed No | 76c | 2,629$1,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 24c | 2,083$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 172 | 34.3%59 W · 113 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -11.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x630c…1230backed Yes | 21c | 1,339$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.97 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d07…35e6backed No | 77c | 1,208$930 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.79 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 23c | 1,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 23c | 877.56$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.84 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 178 | 33.7%60 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 23c | 786.91$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.99 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 79c | 506.2$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.36 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5677…2ce9backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 200 | 40.5%81 W · 119 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 451$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.91 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…c811backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4890…0968backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…d891backed Yes | 24c | 416.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 402.14$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe07…d839backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72d…a4e0backed Yes | 24c | 386.38$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.73 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Yes | 19c | 284.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 77c | 265.16$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.11 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed No | 79c | 222.56$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 23c | 213.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 23c | 194.14$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 386 | 49%189 W · 197 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d1…6448backed Yes | 10c | 191.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ad…972fbacked Yes | 21c | 175.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 24c | 137.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2a…ae8ebacked Yes | 9c | 129.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c32…8994backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…874abacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e7…12febacked No | 77c | 123$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc12b…8f76backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ce…316ebacked Yes | 20c | 109.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…d4debacked Yes | 13c | 102.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 23c | 100.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc84f…d217backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…7f8cbacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5594…c0b2backed Yes | 24c | 91.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…fca1backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb90c…9a6abacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…63b3backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…8742backed Yes | 24c | 83.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Yes | 23c | 82.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 24c | 79.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 200 | 27%54 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…1524backed Yes | 24c | 69.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a8…1f5cbacked Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35b…28b6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 95 | 37.9%36 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…a57ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 76c | 49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d0…a4d3backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 76c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 79c | 28.57$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddb…d3cdbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-09-14?Yes won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.