TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfb64…a57e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
32
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Serie A, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Serie A at 51 out of 100; worst Premier League at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST2864.3%18 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick74cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Premier League — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chelsea vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$162.58
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+38.9%+$11.76
Will Arsenal vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+25%+$10
Will Newcastle vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+33.3%+$12.67
Will Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+25%+$10
Will Manchester City vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+31.6%+$7.2
Will Aston Villa vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 26, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$9.2
Will Liverpool vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$6.3
Will Fulham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$6.6
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$10.63
Will Chelsea vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 4, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$7.67
Will Tottenham vs. Wolves end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.4
Will Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.8
Will Arsenal vs. Manchester City end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.5
Will Bournemouth vs. Newcastle end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.9
Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will Brighton vs. Tottenham end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$37
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Newcastle win on 2025-08-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Manchester United win on 2025-08-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Will Fulham vs. Manchester United end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.2
Will Everton vs. Brighton end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$7.5
Will Crystal Palace vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will Burnley FC vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$8.7
Will Bournemouth vs. Wolves end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$17.5
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Sep 14, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will AS Roma vs. Torino end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT+37%+$5.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daegu FC vs. Gwangju FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+33.3%+$7.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Aug 24, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-08-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 24, 2025, EDT+32.8%+$31.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Kairat Almaty vs. Celtic end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.