Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23e9de3124945b800e5ee05c572c91e4e9e791d99fcd5c0eeaefb44222f148a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 26,030$3,919 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,919.42 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…f2f5backed Yes | 21c | 4,770$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…c9a1backed Yes | 16c | 3,788$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d20…f0aebacked Yes | 21c | 2,856$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a56…85f8backed No | 79c | 2,530$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…3a85backed No | 79c | 2,405$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.05 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf719…eae4backed Yes | 21c | 2,380$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c21…86e5backed No | 79c | 1,901$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9093…b928backed No | 79c | 1,900$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d5…3926backed No | 78c | 1,351$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…93f4backed Yes | 22c | 1,348$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.56 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 78c | 1,293$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.64 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…92c3backed No | 79c | 1,265$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.65 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 14c | 1,031$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.77 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…62d9backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 78c | 608.09$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.78 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458b…a848backed Yes | 23c | 565.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 78c | 499.98$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Yes | 22c | 445.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 23c | 401.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 15c | 222.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 420 | 43.8%184 W · 236 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 11c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 270 | 24.8%67 W · 203 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7b…0179backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…8746backed Yes | 22c | 181.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf07…5129backed Yes | 23c | 176.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa007…3bb9backed Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 18c | 153.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 22c | 134.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…ff4bbacked Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +190%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 20c | 101.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 322 | 22.4%72 W · 250 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cad…7f63backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…8b3abacked Yes | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f72…e9dbbacked Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Yes | 22c | 77.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…cfbdbacked Yes | 15c | 76.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 20c | 70.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 274 | 54%148 W · 126 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,224 | 40%490 W · 734 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 157 | 26.8%42 W · 115 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be5…8d0cbacked Yes | 18c | 66.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…e03cbacked Yes | 20c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…3836backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…a57ebacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…9c43backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 78c | 46.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9a…e59bbacked No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55fa…6ebabacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…4866backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5589…a2c7backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa604…5c14backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 79cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…e3d7backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bea…1d43backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford vs. Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2025-10-05?No won
- Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-05?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.