Premier League · resolved market
Will Fulham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb0a525c14a7232284648abe6a015378170a0b68de89d90b66e180ed9adde86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,170
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,170 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 77c | 5,997$4,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.24 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f6…d396backed Yes | 23c | 5,217$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 30c | 3,281$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.35 | 111 | 55.9%62 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…d974backed Yes | 23c | 2,252$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 96 | 36.5%35 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 78c | 1,675$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.59 | 189 | 58.7%111 W · 78 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 21c | 1,184$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…49efbacked Yes | 23c | 1,086$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.88 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 22c | 909.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 87 | 36.8%32 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 22c | 681.82$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 28c | 610$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 79c | 501$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…ae28backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 399$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed Yes | 29c | 396.91$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.11 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked No | 78c | 390.31$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 92 | 63%58 W · 34 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 9c | 303.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3d…742fbacked Yes | 22c | 271.23$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 77c | 268.51$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…bf77backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 77c | 185$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.55 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 77c | 175.61$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1a…6258backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 17.5%10 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0e9fbacked Yes | 23c | 150.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e2…9710backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 291 | 46%134 W · 157 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 22c | 127.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6527…6c04backed Yes | 23c | 126.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 103 | 35%36 W · 67 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…801cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…c13ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 255 | 45.5%116 W · 139 L | -18.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa896…2043backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…eb00backed Yes | 30c | 82.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 77c | 76$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 834 | 59.4%495 W · 339 L | +25.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…d05bbacked Yes | 22c | 75.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 78c | 75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 356 | 61.2%218 W · 138 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 614 | 41.2%253 W · 361 L | -27.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…874abacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 107 | 33.6%36 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 71 | 76.1%54 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 69cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784b…aa7bbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…81e6backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678f…baa0backed No | 78c | 52.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…f91bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 282 | 46.1%130 W · 152 L | -12.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 46.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7077…e94dbacked No | 78c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 77c | 43.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…a57ebacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…ae82backed No | 78c | 28.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…699bbacked No | 78c | 27.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…96f3backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fulham vs. Arsenal end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-18?Yes won
- Will Fulham win on 2025-10-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.