TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2025-09-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$178,303
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$191,527

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,303 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 183 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x800f…3586backed Yes19c13,158$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick48cpaid+56.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes8c11,796$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.36,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Yes21c10,312$2,162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,162.46357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes19c10,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90035652.8%188 W · 168 L+15.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No80c6,078$4,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,215.6524846.8%116 W · 132 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No78c6,053$4,732 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.9290751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd070…a978backed Yes20c5,096$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0252330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No80c5,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes7c3,300$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24023325.8%60 W · 173 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Yes22c3,008$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661.7768026.3%179 W · 501 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No79c2,885$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.7821154.5%115 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Yes20c2,875$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$574.9910737.4%40 W · 67 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed Yes17c2,511$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.7956453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes19c2,500$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47532736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018433.7%62 W · 122 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes21c2,158$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$453.243834.2%13 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7308…c177backed Yes22c2,039$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.57825%2 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc87…dd68backed Yes21c1,800$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3805632.1%18 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid+2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes5c1,690$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0828736.2%104 W · 183 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes19c1,650$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.281,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed No78c1,500$1,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3306055%33 W · 27 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c3e…b2d3backed Yes20c1,488$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4196…f997backed Yes21c1,324$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2781520%3 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-49.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x64b2…a51abacked Yes3c1,292$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x630c…1230backed Yes17c1,250$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.510333%34 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes6c1,190$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.194,76841.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes21c1,139$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.5844939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No77c1,100$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.9948150.9%245 W · 236 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf17d…2ebebacked Yes20c1,091$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.341323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-47.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c51…133abacked Yes22c1,044$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+30.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Yes22c1,039$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.624334.9%15 W · 28 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x732b…3b02backed Yes22c1,018$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.821040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…1fbdbacked Yes13c1,012$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.57933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbb…e5bcbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f9e…46b5backed Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae3f…12fabacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd45…3dd4backed Yes14c998.68$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.192832.1%9 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd118…caf8backed Yes10c900.5$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b21…1c38backed No80c878.25$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.251283.3%10 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick72cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5827…e59ebacked Yes23c859.57$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x26de…a945backed Yes6c839.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…998ebacked Yes9c800$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb12b…f1dabacked Yes14c725.8$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.381030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc82…c7c5backed No79c708.86$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.861650%8 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes17c683.01$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.787328.8%21 W · 52 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid+6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No77c636.38$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.3379639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5b0…5663backed No80c632$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe980…75e1backed No79c553.46$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.232352.2%12 W · 11 L-3.9wins-0.17per pick69cpaid-25.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xebdf…1fcbbacked Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007753.2%41 W · 36 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x339a…6a00backed No79c513$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.733860.5%23 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes4c512.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013834.1%47 W · 91 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe07…d839backed Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1101442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e49…63f2backed Yes21c481.48$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1129427.9%82 W · 212 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2816…c811backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2453…28e2backed Yes22c454.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025637.9%97 W · 159 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6169…b054backed Yes8c390.38$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Yes22c389.71$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8413342.1%56 W · 77 L-13.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-13.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4aa4…17c0backed No79c380.08$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.746963.8%44 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed No78c373.41$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.152227.3%6 W · 16 L-3.8wins-0.17per pick45cpaid-58.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed Yes7c371.36$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2732222.4%72 W · 250 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick21cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes20c351.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2679650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes22c344$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6827235.7%97 W · 175 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd094…271bbacked Yes21c333.38$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.0120027%54 W · 146 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd4aa…d7c8backed Yes23c326.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+74.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes20c319.9$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.986327%17 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Yes19c317.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.337732.5%25 W · 52 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2059…bfc9backed No78c314.89$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.281050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No78c307.96$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.799929.3%29 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes19c300$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5721839.4%86 W · 132 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc553…5928backed Yes22c300$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.19per pick28cpaid-84.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89d1…6448backed Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddc…f21cbacked Yes20c299.2$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.846747.8%32 W · 35 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes22c288$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.362035%7 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No78c288$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.3620140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes21c286.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.2315060.7%91 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked No79c282.83$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.396450%32 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd737…1700backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1166…a8e1backed Yes23c260.87$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609736.1%35 W · 62 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-6.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes20c250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505127.5%14 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6c5…7becbacked No79c249.99$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.5771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+37.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Yes19c238.42$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.38045%36 W · 44 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb4…420cbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc12b…8f76backed Yes22c227.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick28cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5594…c0b2backed Yes22c224.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.912326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No80c224.25$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8583459.4%495 W · 339 L+25.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5011342.5%48 W · 65 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa972…d075backed Yes21c211.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb3ab…ff0cbacked No79c197.23$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.427657.9%44 W · 32 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x395c…4415backed Yes22c191.55$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.733333.3%11 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-33.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d3c…3a5ebacked Yes21c189$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-77.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x20c7…50c9backed Yes19c184.21$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356939.1%27 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe68a…5a2bbacked Yes20c177.1$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.422828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes23c173.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405923.7%14 W · 45 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca6…4298backed Yes22c170.45$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e2a…ae8ebacked Yes14c166.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d73…97c0backed Yes21c159.33$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.46250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd051…2e83backed Yes16c153.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes22c150$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334637%17 W · 29 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd98b…58debacked Yes23c143.48$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.