Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ffe7762c911e499be2ea76dad47ade9a9598147518b6c52d4a66735bb857474
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $106,196
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,196 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 25c | 39,937$9,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,984.15 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…43f7backed Yes | 23c | 11,300$2,619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,619.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Yes | 11c | 8,645$925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.58 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7423…8e0abacked Yes | 25c | 6,003$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc72e…e5d1backed Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…a7fcbacked No | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 12c | 3,536$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.23 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xba1e…9313backed No | 75c | 3,334$2,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…09ccbacked No | 75c | 2,667$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 15c | 2,319$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.04 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…403bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,447$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.67 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 69c | 1,127$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.92 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 31c | 1,100$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d9…da5ebacked No | 75c | 1,067$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 22c | 949$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.84 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 75c | 810$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.5 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 79c | 788$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.48 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 25c | 481.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 26c | 407.69$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 73c | 379.97$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.79 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699d…7b47backed Yes | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 75c | 319$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 26c | 311.54$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 29c | 259.76$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.33 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0709…f2edbacked Yes | 32c | 252.81$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 19c | 252.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c53…cba8backed Yes | 26c | 230.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…bbaabacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0886…bb4ebacked Yes | 27c | 174.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed No | 73c | 174.07$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 29c | 172$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 24c | 156$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf70c…72c1backed Yes | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…7842backed No | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 71cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 74c | 136$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 25c | 124$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 78c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce62…1f33backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf270…6015backed Yes | 27c | 96.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…b86ebacked Yes | 26c | 77.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 77c | 74$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 74c | 73.13$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddca…239abacked Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4c…6579backed No | 71c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 166 | 52.4%87 W · 79 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…0b63backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer Leverkusen vs. Eintracht Frankfurt end in a draw?this page
- Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2025-09-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.