TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer Leverkusen win on 2025-09-12?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,246
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$249,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,246 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdf2e…ddecbacked No54c40,659$21,974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,974.369053.3%48 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2635…5408backed No54c28,435$15,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,355.151723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes50c25,079$12,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,592.433,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed No21c19,258$4,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,056.952035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-35.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed No15c11,334$1,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,698.9615064%96 W · 54 L+25.0wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+53.3%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes47c9,800$4,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,191.610463.5%66 W · 38 L+9.8wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa768…0ad1backed Yes46c9,550$4,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,157250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Yes59c9,230$5,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,803.419153.9%103 W · 88 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed No57c9,000$5,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,129.993357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Yes43c6,931$2,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,950.761163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No48c5,783$2,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,764.0723745.6%108 W · 129 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c0…940dbacked Yes72c4,363$3,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes46c4,362$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,361.711681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+27.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Yes62c4,048$2,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.89666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,65016647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917c…6b38backed No55c2,000$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ebb…593dbacked Yes45c1,996$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes62c1,640$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.312,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Yes70c1,319$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed Yes47c1,278$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.4623046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes46c1,214$554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$660.033644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x883f…aad2backed Yes43c1,164$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x016e…c700backed Yes71c1,091$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.05560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked No57c1,056$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6022536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc470…1eecbacked No8c1,050$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+66.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed No57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5701442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-36.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e10…70f4backed Yes43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4569053.3%48 W · 42 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc0b8…87c1backed Yes77c700.97$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Yes65c679.14$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.631872.2%13 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x761a…d9babacked Yes71c620.55$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.1666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9738backed No36c605$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.051450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0113…6f26backed Yes64c500$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.55580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+44.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed No55c499.98$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.992536%9 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No57c499.94$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.973748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Yes44c488.65$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.64944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+74%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb405…8771backed Yes43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.12850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6c9…bb9ebacked No22c462.54$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked No56c446.43$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88f5…ee20backed Yes75c439.63$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae3…47ccbacked Yes43c410.47$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+134.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed No49c390$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes78c372$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.999846.9%46 W · 52 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No27c360.87$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.136921.7%15 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x330b…69f1backed No56c354.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004042.5%17 W · 23 L-4.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed No35c322.98$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.36520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-73%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked No46c317.16$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.711643.8%7 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4041…6f52backed No57c300$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1714650%23 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes60c278.26$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.315143.1%22 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…db98backed No41c243.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-28.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes51c229$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.2155058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Yes44c225$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1124322.2%54 W · 189 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe671…a682backed Yes44c224.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9915847.5%75 W · 83 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Yes66c212.67$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.675955.9%33 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Yes45c205.22$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5634342%144 W · 199 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aa4…17c0backed No57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142853.6%15 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1109048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked No14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-61.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70d2…f395backed No30c196.77$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c6…8effbacked Yes77c194.81$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes65c180$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.37757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes69c180$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.47067.1%47 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No56c178.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004751.1%24 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8fe…ba40backed No55c170$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.53545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Yes59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-20.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c69…1624backed Yes69c167.62$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…c20dbacked Yes65c160.61$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.611931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdce…a1d1backed Yes79c160.11$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.082100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes55c160$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2232…f6fabacked Yes65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes43c152.6$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9811036.4%40 W · 70 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd316…bca3backed Yes46c152.17$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43e7…1f62backed Yes80c150.64$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked No57c150.31$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.184456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f2…d036backed Yes80c150$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeaf6…8e9abacked No9c149.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-71.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc76…7842backed No58c149.95$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.97757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick71cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Yes67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.252544%11 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe724…1938backed Yes43c147.44$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.041861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbd7…732abacked Yes71c140.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a4c…6579backed No11c136.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.341442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick28cpaid-11%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb782…c353backed Yes76c131.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes74c129$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.549173.6%67 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick67cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x040d…1a5ebacked No27c111$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4db0…e467backed Yes46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0281…34e7backed Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed No10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…1d48backed Yes69c100$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+76.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xce62…1f33backed Yes67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…4291backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e3…009fbacked No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544744.7%21 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No56c91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.961553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10f…004dbacked No57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506360.3%38 W · 25 L+0.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae29…c5a4backed No59c84.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed No56c83.53$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8925659.4%152 W · 104 L+9.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes43c82$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.1133945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Yes69c68.82$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.526459.4%38 W · 26 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e9…7dcbbacked Yes66c60$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked No57c56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8411860.2%71 W · 47 L+7.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a21…0229backed Yes46c55.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.