Champions League · resolved market
Will Sturm Graz vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe62fb04fa60ba54159fd71d8f7dbfa72fc81983fedf43e1d9f78e00a3eb8d520
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdefe…5432backed No | 75c | 1,485$1,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.25 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 72cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 27c | 1,483$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.73 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Yes | 50c | 1,413$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.89 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 24c | 1,155$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.21 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes | 22c | 1,046$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 60c | 924.63$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.59 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 22c | 910.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 74c | 732.62$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.8 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 65c | 634.87$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 26c | 500.24$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Yes | 25c | 468$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 69c | 310.77$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 262.31$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1,487 | 40.3%599 W · 888 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b32…32c1backed No | 76c | 245.86$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 74c | 237.96$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.87 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 78c | 237.69$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…15d4backed Yes | 25c | 204.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 48c | 178.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.17 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 57c | 158.39$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 37c | 130.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 64c | 112$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 433 | 33.5%145 W · 288 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Yes | 53c | 95.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -4.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f587backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b8…2449backed Yes | 35c | 68.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…c742backed Yes | 37c | 61.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 25c | 46.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…f67dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…8d6dbacked Yes | 37c | 32.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sturm Graz vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw?this page
- Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-08-26?No won
- Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.