Champions League · resolved market
Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c0edd2f37a95a9bb8d4679d7b90392cfd85e67d304375c9bf40a13498a4d0d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 8c | 4,522$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 59c | 4,404$2,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,596.63 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 41c | 3,199$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.41 | 285 | 43.9%125 W · 160 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 37c | 2,050$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.49 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 63c | 1,808$1,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.08 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Yes | 42c | 1,710$713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.59 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes | 30c | 765.07$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.07 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 30c | 711$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.17 | 210 | 37.1%78 W · 132 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 38c | 473.68$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.68 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed No | 62c | 350$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked No | 57c | 299.99$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.99 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e8…77c4backed No | 22c | 206.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 58c | 204.54$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.07 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 72c | 204$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.17 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 197 | 55.3%109 W · 88 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 60c | 182.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.66 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes | 36c | 179.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…50c9backed Yes | 41c | 109.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 440 | 33.9%149 W · 291 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +105%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 59c | 75.9$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 63c | 65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 140 | 44.3%62 W · 78 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 55c | 63.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 80c | 62.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 32c | 45.11$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…b532backed Yes | 45c | 44.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e8…9d12backed Yes | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0de…443bbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb39e…5182backed Yes | 38c | 28.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed No | 64c | 23.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 67cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…e9efbacked No | 60c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed No | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…019fbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sturm Graz win on 2025-08-26?this page
- Will Bodo/Glimt win on 2025-08-26?No won
- Will Sturm Graz vs. Bodo/Glimt end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.