Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs. Natus Vincere
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f20599a0ba1d84d30ddbdc030a4eab8bfbd1c47c239d05180321fb17b02b014
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Tideboundof Team Tidebound, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa742…68c5backed Team Tidebound | 72c | 5,002$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,402.63 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 4,748$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Natus Vincere | 41c | 1,538$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629 | 610 | 57.9%353 W · 257 L | +2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Team Tidebound | 62c | 1,481$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.66 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Team Tidebound | 66c | 979.67$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.94 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84eb…869dbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 947.69$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.25 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Team Tidebound | 69c | 516.13$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3789…a08abacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Natus Vincere | 48c | 469.61$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.81 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…b15fbacked Team Tidebound | 65c | 410$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 319.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Team Tidebound | 71c | 300$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2729…e171backed Team Tidebound | 66c | 298.28$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Team Tidebound | 58c | 222.59$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.77 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked Natus Vincere | 32c | 200.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…3a6cbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 199.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 190$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Team Tidebound | 71c | 190$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Tidebound | 70c | 186.25$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Team Tidebound | 59c | 139.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.36 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Team Tidebound | 74c | 132.12$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere | 40c | 105$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Natus Vincere | 49c | 104.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…5bd1backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 100.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…5a2dbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Natus Vincere | 39c | 79.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Team Tidebound | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…78a1backed Natus Vincere | 32c | 46.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9bd…68bebacked Natus Vincere | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Natus Vincere | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65d7…427ebacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 38.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Team Tidebound | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.