Champions League · resolved market
Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa15b9dc7117cefcc4b87182526deba81fd67e541be7f08d8e0de6a6fd739ee41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 59c | 4,865$2,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,001.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 39c | 3,088$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.03 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.99 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed No | 51c | 2,417$1,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.08 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked No | 53c | 1,100$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 54c | 938.26$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.98 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 48c | 688.81$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.7 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed No | 52c | 579.4$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.4 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd16a…7691backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 48c | 500$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.43 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 51c | 499.98$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 54c | 499.89$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.19 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…1484backed Yes | 51c | 443.1$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…cd47backed Yes | 68c | 419.73$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Yes | 50c | 405$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 51c | 394.86$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed No | 50c | 286$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 49c | 265.31$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 54c | 255$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.18 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Yes | 35c | 214.29$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.38per pick | 58cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -14.4wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5d…0774backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Yes | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…061abacked Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 55c | 182.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ef…0b77backed No | 51c | 165.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +87%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 31c | 150.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9a…5b99backed Yes | 50c | 119.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 193 | 44%85 W · 108 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…0cefbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43c2…4beabacked Yes | 50c | 62.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a2…1e8abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf566…bbb9backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +105%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb54b…3859backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e1…0e40backed Yes | 50c | 33.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 46c | 22.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19?this page
- Will Ferencvaros vs. Qarabag end in a draw?No won
- Will Qarabag win on 2025-08-19?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.