Champions League · resolved market
Will Qarabag win on 2025-08-19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fe0195f8c0e2fc21207565a80ec339de4078cd4f479824a1071aa23ec86d7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,392$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,798.66 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 25c | 2,100$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 402 | 22.9%92 W · 310 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 77c | 1,902$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,464.53 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked No | 75c | 1,445$1,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 76c | 1,375$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.01 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 75c | 1,050$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.5 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77fb…849ebacked No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 24c | 929.61$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.61 | 220 | 54.1%119 W · 101 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 50c | 650.25$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.73 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 24c | 622.04$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.75 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 76c | 573$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.75 | 291 | 36.8%107 W · 184 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Yes | 30c | 500$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 30c | 355.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.32 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x598c…cd47backed Yes | 80c | 251.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 71cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb32f…4f6cbacked Yes | 24c | 227.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.62 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 28c | 216$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 249 | 63.1%157 W · 92 L | +45.5wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed No | 73c | 211.42$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.34 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 24c | 206.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.81 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167 | 173 | 22%38 W · 135 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +199.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.19 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d7…261bbacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Yes | 35c | 105.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.12 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…0cefbacked Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.17 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 51c | 99.98$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1a…727ebacked No | 68c | 88$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…b575backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 76c | 73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.48 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…b00bbacked Yes | 31c | 63.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 75c | 47.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed No | 74c | 25.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 344 | 49.7%171 W · 173 L | -15.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 76c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Qarabag win on 2025-08-19?this page
- Will Ferencvaros vs. Qarabag end in a draw?No won
- Will Ferencvaros win on 2025-08-19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.