Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Iga Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9f4645ee40f3214dfe9d646cdc25c32d29a333f6b7e873470830b5421e517e20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Swiatekof Alexandrova, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Swiatek | 77c | 27,700$21,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,438.24 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Alexandrova | 23c | 10,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Alexandrova | 24c | 7,000$1,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,680 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…f010backed Alexandrova | 23c | 5,000$1,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,150 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Alexandrova | 23c | 3,748$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Alexandrova | 22c | 3,290$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.62 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Alexandrova | 23c | 3,264$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.81 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba9…bfaebacked Swiatek | 77c | 3,261$2,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.93 | 177 | 54.8%97 W · 80 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…0176backed Swiatek | 77c | 3,200$2,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Alexandrova | 23c | 2,508$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.79 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Swiatek | 77c | 2,500$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.18 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Alexandrova | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +48%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Alexandrova | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Alexandrova | 21c | 1,992$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.05 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…b5a8backed Alexandrova | 32c | 1,884$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…dacfbacked Swiatek | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31a…adffbacked Swiatek | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 252 | 44.4%112 W · 140 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Swiatek | 72c | 1,162$841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.05 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Alexandrova | 25c | 1,097$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.25 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Alexandrova | 24c | 1,000$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -77%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Alexandrova | 24c | 980$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.3 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Alexandrova | 23c | 751.02$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.73 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1a…bf3abacked Swiatek | 77c | 676.02$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Alexandrova | 23c | 600$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.33 | 296 | 34.1%101 W · 195 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Alexandrova | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Swiatek | 78c | 570$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.8 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Alexandrova | 24c | 559.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…93c2backed Alexandrova | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Swiatek | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Swiatek | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Alexandrova | 26c | 391.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Alexandrova | 15c | 377.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.16 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Alexandrova | 33c | 355.15$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.83 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…f395backed Swiatek | 75c | 340$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Alexandrova | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed Alexandrova | 30c | 296.02$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed Swiatek | 78c | 294.87$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.87 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Alexandrova | 22c | 260.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…9012backed Swiatek | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Swiatek | 76c | 202.41$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Alexandrova | 10c | 201.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…9c10backed Swiatek | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Swiatek | 78c | 193.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.14 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Alexandrova | 24c | 192$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.08 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Swiatek | 75c | 190$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Swiatek | 78c | 173.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Swiatek | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Swiatek | 78c | 134.62$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Alexandrova | 22c | 114.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 2,766 | 47.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Swiatek | 76c | 105.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Swiatek | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Alexandrova | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 85 | 22.4%19 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Alexandrova | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…fcbebacked Swiatek | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Alexandrova | 23c | 87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Swiatek | 69c | 76.78$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Swiatek | 79c | 63.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Swiatek | 78c | 56.41$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed Swiatek | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Alexandrova | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Swiatek | 77c | 39.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Swiatek | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b2…273bbacked Swiatek | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…bdcabacked Swiatek | 77c | 29.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b0…4d8ebacked Swiatek | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Swiatek | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…6f8abacked Swiatek | 70c | 25.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Swiatek | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 718 | 57.7%414 W · 304 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e74…4934backed Swiatek | 74c | 24.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd891…8d2abacked Swiatek | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Swiatek | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…4c25backed Swiatek | 79c | 14.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.