TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Karolina Muchova

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Muchovaof Kostyuk, Muchova
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$140,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$139,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $140,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x781c…db68backed Muchova67c27,177$18,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,099.8210138.6%39 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Kostyuk30c15,877$4,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,825.6728443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Kostyuk47c10,940$5,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,137.461,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Kostyuk29c10,096$2,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,898.1765242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muchova65c7,796$5,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,746.771,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Kostyuk49c6,409$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.632141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0344…a65ebacked Muchova43c5,641$2,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,236.361662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Muchova53c3,457$1,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,608.2843948.5%213 W · 226 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Kostyuk31c3,336$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.898949.4%44 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Kostyuk34c3,222$1,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,098.66747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Kostyuk71c2,567$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,828.991,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Kostyuk43c2,232$967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.4822629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Muchova71c2,077$1,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.931,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3868…5683backed Muchova51c1,650$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8107330.1%22 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Kostyuk66c1,352$887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.219245.7%42 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc3…6b7fbacked Muchova57c1,193$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.85450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Kostyuk22c1,150$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9736440.9%149 W · 215 L-13.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Muchova68c1,058$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.3228451.1%145 W · 139 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Kostyuk33c1,029$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.3413245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kostyuk39c992.51$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.1211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Muchova77c918.35$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.2214546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kostyuk42c900.89$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.3795140.1%381 W · 570 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Muchova78c803.35$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.545869%40 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed Muchova51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39266831.3%209 W · 459 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Kostyuk19c755$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.662634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Kostyuk72c693.97$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.6617818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Kostyuk59c620$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36312954.3%70 W · 59 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Muchova66c612.24$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1639144.2%173 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1a…bf3abacked Muchova75c604.26$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.063100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Kostyuk40c601.6$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.642733.3%9 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Kostyuk42c570.36$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.3115957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Muchova58c568.14$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.316140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Kostyuk60c567.41$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.893745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27a9…8781backed Kostyuk57c558.73$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.0215439.6%61 W · 93 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5652…ff34backed Muchova72c550$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.512134.7%42 W · 79 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Muchova37c538.95$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.9511060.9%67 W · 43 L+12.0wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Kostyuk63c526.98$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33259151.6%305 W · 286 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fae…0d19backed Kostyuk54c500$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.3642839.7%170 W · 258 L-0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Kostyuk40c479.98$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.992748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Kostyuk45c453.74$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.235332.1%17 W · 36 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Muchova24c411.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.442642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Muchova49c380$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.725330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3606…9bd2backed Muchova28c359.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.821747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+53.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ea…5590backed Muchova67c345.52$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.731154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x700f…62d8backed Muchova59c337.25$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.2538348%184 W · 199 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb78d…1d48backed Muchova60c333.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.335360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Kostyuk41c300$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12329634.1%101 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Muchova58c299.99$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1261540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Kostyuk77c283.66$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.18052.5%42 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Kostyuk40c271.61$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6155143.4%239 W · 312 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4835…8f59backed Muchova43c248.32$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.3214850%74 W · 74 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Kostyuk67c240$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.64348.8%21 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Kostyuk42c236.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a0e…9012backed Muchova60c233.33$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.33666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc80…e7bebacked Muchova39c228.87$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.871838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Kostyuk40c218$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.22653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Kostyuk46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1af…d23bbacked Muchova75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511070%7 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Muchova40c200$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12057939.7%230 W · 349 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Muchova55c180.59$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.382,76647.7%1,318 W · 1,448 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Muchova60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.671,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ba0…ff3abacked Muchova60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6743158.2%251 W · 180 L-5.2wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Muchova60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.6773147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b2…273bbacked Kostyuk44c164.14$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.246659.1%39 W · 27 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9fd…e1b8backed Muchova57c152.1$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8889…a9d1backed Muchova70c143.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439149.5%45 W · 46 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Kostyuk33c142.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.336863.2%43 W · 25 L+8.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Muchova63c141.73$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.935052%26 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c40…ea3dbacked Muchova43c132.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.515446.3%25 W · 29 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Kostyuk25c121.7$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.822638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-31.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x70d2…f395backed Muchova22c120$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.63070%21 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+44.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x31df…10cabacked Muchova40c118.63$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.181070%7 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Kostyuk35c111.41$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.28555.3%47 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec00…f896backed Muchova47c106.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.381442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1424…4f78backed Muchova61c100.16$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1612843%55 W · 73 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb470…aa7bbacked Kostyuk46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef5…39edbacked Muchova28c97.89$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.0725722.2%57 W · 200 L-12.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Muchova57c97.64$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.73652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Kostyuk59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.078943.8%39 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…e834backed Kostyuk29c87.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.153847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10a3…ae13backed Muchova67c86.22$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.034955.1%27 W · 22 L-4.6wins-0.09per pick65cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe239…14eabacked Kostyuk28c82.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.932245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Kostyuk28c80$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.24252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88f5…ee20backed Muchova75c76.02$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.02540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-47.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93c4…dca6backed Muchova68c73.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.53366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Muchova68c72$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.041050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ca…0672backed Kostyuk25c71.43$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.862166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+24.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51f7…ae1fbacked Kostyuk30c69.89$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9717338.7%67 W · 106 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+77.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3823…2784backed Muchova74c67.55$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5632161.7%198 W · 123 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d5…10d3backed Muchova60c51$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dab…4522backed Muchova26c50.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.173946.2%18 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-23.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Kostyuk24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125860.3%35 W · 23 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf112…21ebbacked Muchova32c48.56$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.8713864.5%89 W · 49 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9354…6502backed Kostyuk42c43.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3675547.8%361 W · 394 L+0.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0785…4eb0backed Muchova60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Muchova60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3321454.7%117 W · 97 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed Muchova66c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.212447.6%59 W · 65 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e93…69d5backed Muchova60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e2…4459backed Muchova56c29.3$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8910372.8%75 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+19.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x338e…9f49backed Muchova79c25.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.431080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.