NFL · resolved market
Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3e529ca17e2119634fbfb14d554daa06cf24bc342f04ed5dc9490cb7b845c52f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $335,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $339,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $335,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 47c | 155,984$73,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82,055.06 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Over | 53c | 145,029$76,676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76,675.91 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa987…141dbacked Under | 49c | 76,477$37,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38,974.36 | 100 | 61%61 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Over | 50c | 51,110$25,714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,714.4 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Under | 51c | 32,047$16,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,703.15 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Over | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,300 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Under | 49c | 27,388$13,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,071.76 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Over | 49c | 20,961$10,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,335.76 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed Over | 49c | 19,500$9,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,554.94 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Over | 51c | 10,000$5,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,062.5 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 49c | 6,900$3,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,381 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…9423backed Under | 51c | 5,200$2,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548 | 104 | 67.3%70 W · 34 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 4,392$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,283.84 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,040 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed Under | 51c | 3,902$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,902.21 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…f647backed Under | 50c | 3,800$1,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,900 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Over | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 51c | 2,313$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.39 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked Over | 49c | 2,010$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.9 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Over | 51c | 2,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 117 | 50.4%59 W · 58 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xae8c…93cdbacked Under | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.54 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Over | 49c | 800$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c3…3242backed Over | 51c | 494.8$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 53c | 448.03$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.57 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…3ddcbacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Over | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 54.6%95 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eff…8490backed Under | 52c | 230.58$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.58 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94db…55f5backed Under | 49c | 196.47$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 49c | 171.64$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…86b3backed Over | 49c | 139.12$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b05…c6c8backed Over | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe611…0ae4backed Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 368 | 26.9%99 W · 269 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 47c | 62.79$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 46c | 55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…7be6backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1985…3f7abacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 48.5this page
- Commanders vs. PackersPackers won
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Packers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.