NFL · resolved market
Spread: Packers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e4bff27e254b9eb710de66a9f73e2ee1bf5100d6e409d45b59689b9c6b83baa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Packersof Packers, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,891
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,891 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d9d…02c7backed Commanders | 54c | 28,134$15,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,192.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Packers | 46c | 25,000$11,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,500 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Packers | 45c | 20,811$9,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,440.36 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Commanders | 54c | 19,380$10,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,465.37 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf4…43f7backed Packers | 46c | 14,500$6,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,830 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…aaf2backed Commanders | 55c | 12,348$6,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,791.46 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Commanders | 54c | 11,794$6,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,341.68 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Packers | 46c | 9,470$4,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,113.8 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Commanders | 54c | 9,124$4,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,926.96 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Packers | 46c | 8,343$3,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,505.16 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Commanders | 55c | 7,000$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Packers | 48c | 5,200$2,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,702 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Commanders | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Packers | 46c | 2,427$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.59 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Packers | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…6d7bbacked Packers | 46c | 1,484$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…20e0backed Packers | 47c | 751.15$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.11 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b8…9272backed Packers | 46c | 564.83$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.01 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Commanders | 53c | 560$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.8 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Commanders | 54c | 540.41$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.82 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Packers | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Commanders | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Packers | 52c | 455.18$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.13 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Commanders | 55c | 454.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Packers | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…6df6backed Packers | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.78 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5318…2a91backed Packers | 47c | 427.84$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.84 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245b…00c5backed Commanders | 53c | 329.79$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…b26dbacked Commanders | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Commanders | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Commanders | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Commanders | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e61…9860backed Packers | 47c | 269.09$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.74 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Packers | 46c | 234.78$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.78 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Commanders | 54c | 217$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.18 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Commanders | 53c | 214$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.42 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Commanders | 42c | 210.1$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Commanders | 52c | 204.17$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.17 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…d90cbacked Commanders | 55c | 186.44$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b05…c6c8backed Packers | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Packers | 46c | 120$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 120 | 31.7%38 W · 82 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Commanders | 53c | 114.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2954…d34ebacked Commanders | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Packers | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Packers | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Packers | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Packers | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Commanders | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Commanders | 54c | 92.74$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.08 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…0b3ebacked Commanders | 55c | 90.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f18…712dbacked Commanders | 54c | 58.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Commanders | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked Packers | 46c | 54.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2325…3256backed Commanders | 55c | 54.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Packers | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…15d4backed Packers | 47c | 44.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…1806backed Packers | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Commanders | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Commanders | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd153…f9a3backed Commanders | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Packers | 46c | 32.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Packers | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93aa…9ababacked Packers | 46c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)this page
- Commanders vs. PackersPackers won
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 46.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 47.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 48.5Under won
- Commanders vs. Packers: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)Packers won
- Spread: Packers (-4.5)Packers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.