TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Karolina Muchova vs Naomi Osaka

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Osakaof Muchova, Osaka
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$285,820
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $285,820 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc56f…75efbacked Muchova28c41,143$11,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,425.954330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bde…8c91backed Muchova28c38,827$10,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,871.55922.2%2 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Osaka72c31,976$23,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,880.293458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Osaka72c24,488$17,646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,842.319354.8%51 W · 42 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Osaka73c20,343$14,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,4333452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+8.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Muchova12c9,800$1,151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,151.3565242.8%279 W · 373 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd16a…7691backed Muchova11c9,600$1,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0341952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+28.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Muchova25c8,492$2,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,083.948949.4%44 W · 45 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0344…a65ebacked Osaka74c7,000$5,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8201662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Muchova26c6,989$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,84114345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Muchova28c6,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,68066949.6%332 W · 337 L-11.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed Osaka69c5,700$3,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,76728443%122 W · 162 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Osaka73c5,199$3,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,403.7313935.3%49 W · 90 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Osaka74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30011852.5%62 W · 56 L-8.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8bb2…6b94backed Muchova6c3,879$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2307041.4%29 W · 41 L+7.4wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+2.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Muchova27c3,704$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.088429.8%25 W · 59 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa9…2491backed Muchova9c3,639$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.3232141.1%132 W · 189 L-1.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e3…c148backed Muchova31c3,584$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.0615724.8%39 W · 118 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3868…5683backed Muchova28c3,500$986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985.57330.1%22 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Muchova21c3,267$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67412737.8%48 W · 79 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c80…a608backed Osaka74c2,999$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$779.842927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8482…2f1fbacked Osaka74c2,927$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$760.93862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Osaka69c2,540$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.1110138.6%39 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Muchova23c2,522$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.3845737.9%173 W · 284 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Osaka74c2,500$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.2313253.8%71 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Osaka70c2,470$1,733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.5128828.5%82 W · 206 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Muchova25c2,394$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.085151%26 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad87…6a86backed Osaka79c2,344$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.31450%7 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Osaka73c2,285$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.654944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Muchova31c2,058$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.9414949%73 W · 76 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Muchova21c2,029$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.9813245.5%60 W · 72 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Muchova7c2,027$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1918740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Muchova27c1,852$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50019835.4%70 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Osaka67c1,650$1,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.1916140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Muchova27c1,501$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.2913934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Muchova29c1,500$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.991540%6 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-14.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed Osaka73c1,401$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.54944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85e2…0980backed Muchova28c1,357$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38014546.2%67 W · 78 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7616…69eebacked Muchova15c1,233$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.937057.1%40 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Muchova27c1,068$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.3643042.8%184 W · 246 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Osaka71c1,058$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3073441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Muchova23c1,035$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.161827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-27.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3d0…5c32backed Muchova28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28022629.2%66 W · 160 L+7.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd4a…048ebacked Muchova26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Muchova28c999.99$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdc…7cddbacked Muchova31c993.55$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3082951.7%15 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.18per pick34cpaid+66.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xccff…e845backed Muchova13c980$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.932835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Osaka77c905$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.866747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Muchova10c902.48$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2410845.4%49 W · 59 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf339…e010backed Osaka77c900$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2072653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0167…0d88backed Muchova12c833.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bae…e6c5backed Osaka74c821.62$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.6217818%32 W · 146 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-39.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Osaka72c802.86$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+39.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Muchova12c800$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9611652.6%61 W · 55 L-0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Muchova30c799.99$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24029636.8%109 W · 187 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Muchova26c775.14$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.544040%16 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa7c8…bc64backed Osaka71c704.77$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-29.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc3…6b7fbacked Muchova30c699.99$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8485…c13ebacked Muchova30c628$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.4540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb852…bfaebacked Muchova26c600$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2829634.1%101 W · 195 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff72…512bbacked Muchova22c580$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.66833.8%23 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Osaka69c579.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.71450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf80b…fa00backed Osaka74c520.86$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.0215957.2%91 W · 68 L+15.8wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+18.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xece7…6979backed Muchova30c500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked Osaka74c500$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9406…9071backed Muchova21c480.95$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1746…730abacked Muchova26c446.94$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78d…1d48backed Osaka71c422.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.545360.4%32 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd687…c066backed Osaka73c408.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.181330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0306…dcf6backed Osaka74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4114663%92 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…7d5fbacked Osaka74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4121758.1%126 W · 91 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70d2…f395backed Muchova25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003070%21 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+44.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9b16…0dc4backed Muchova25c396.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick62cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Muchova28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048043.3%208 W · 272 L-1.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Muchova28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073147.9%350 W · 381 L-16.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa317…a3f3backed Muchova28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Osaka75c350$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.55869%40 W · 18 L+5.8wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc80…e7bebacked Muchova17c348.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.321838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5a…7618backed Muchova27c345$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1525330%76 W · 177 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Muchova33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10063942.4%271 W · 368 L+1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e6…63d8backed Osaka69c300$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Osaka71c300$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872634.6%9 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee05…812fbacked Osaka70c285.71$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.711040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Osaka74c270.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.8525352.2%132 W · 121 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3573…b6f9backed Muchova10c223$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.31136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+22.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa362…f906backed Muchova31c210$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.12748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff33…4aedbacked Osaka73c207.01$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.89580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+36.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2729…e171backed Muchova24c207$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.681546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Osaka74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…d4d8backed Muchova27c173.35$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x87a4…953ebacked Osaka70c168.04$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.411,05655.4%585 W · 471 L-22.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5773…dc71backed Muchova12c166.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-69.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Muchova32c160$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Osaka74c156.93$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.1489850.1%450 W · 448 L-20.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe233…14a3backed Osaka73c150.68$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.6838356.9%218 W · 165 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57a0…a17cbacked Muchova24c145.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa530…1934backed Muchova24c125$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-65.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7249…03f8backed Muchova19c120.53$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.75333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…7c47backed Osaka70c114.29$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.295052%26 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf112…21ebbacked Osaka74c111.6$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.613864.5%89 W · 49 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.