Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Ludogorets win on 2025-08-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x342a8b13abd43568b0ed728469591a5c3f7e6421b37efc6fcf0daca9e08edd58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed No | 27c | 12,653$3,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,442.73 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 73c | 10,918$7,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,951.79 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 28c | 9,010$2,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,522.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes | 72c | 8,010$5,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,242.8 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed No | 18c | 3,945$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700.95 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Yes | 72c | 2,743$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$767.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 72c | 972.6$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.33 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 24c | 682.05$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.82 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 75c | 649.35$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.28 | 153 | 76.5%117 W · 36 L | +37.4wins | +0.24per pick | 52cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed No | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79a4…07bebacked Yes | 74c | 299.67$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 24c | 215.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 26c | 184.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa362…f906backed No | 26c | 179.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 25c | 105.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 133 | 27.8%37 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 65 | 13.8%9 W · 56 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x337d…2e8abacked Yes | 74c | 91.28$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed Yes | 72c | 75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3095…8e0ebacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…6cf3backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ludogorets win on 2025-08-28?this page
- Will Ludogorets vs. Shkendija end in a draw?No won
- Will Shkendija win on 2025-08-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.