NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15963d930f4e7eb25885ede3f53e72605a787b9c7e5d2a7c30e7306cf832ce7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 6,076$2,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,178.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44d4…1970backed Under | 52c | 5,999$3,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,118.93 | 167 | 52.1%87 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6c…a434backed Under | 49c | 4,500$2,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…ec32backed Under | 49c | 4,449$2,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,180.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b2…b139backed Under | 49c | 4,104$2,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,010.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49e…d015backed Under | 49c | 3,921$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,921.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…eab8backed Under | 49c | 3,884$1,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,903.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…02debacked Under | 49c | 3,874$1,898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,898.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 3,445$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.12 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…b413backed Under | 53c | 2,810$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.2 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed Over | 53c | 1,896$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.85 | 380 | 46.6%177 W · 203 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Under | 44c | 1,525$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.31 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ff…bc41backed Over | 51c | 1,495$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.55 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…bde4backed Over | 65c | 1,481$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.18 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…2401backed Over | 51c | 1,476$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f80…1bd3backed Over | 51c | 1,429$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd89…14c1backed Over | 51c | 1,402$715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bb…966fbacked Over | 51c | 1,380$704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$676.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…53abbacked Over | 51c | 1,358$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…e8b9backed Over | 51c | 1,341$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf87a…d93abacked Over | 51c | 1,299$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…1b66backed Over | 51c | 1,229$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa908…2b2bbacked Over | 51c | 1,196$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x630a…7968backed Over | 51c | 1,183$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1903…c051backed Over | 51c | 1,182$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…cda1backed Over | 51c | 1,150$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 48c | 1,150$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.99 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92db…8de7backed Over | 51c | 1,141$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9923…9ee0backed Over | 51c | 1,134$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2420…1328backed Over | 51c | 1,108$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.92 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83f1…8571backed Over | 51c | 1,093$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f359backed Over | 51c | 1,057$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…af74backed Over | 51c | 1,055$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…1b51backed Over | 51c | 1,024$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.76 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Over | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800 | 353 | 26.6%94 W · 259 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +31%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 18c | 986.7$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.09 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 29c | 961.32$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.86 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 78c | 888.28$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.41 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 389.79$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.59 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 40c | 327.15$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.59 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 48c | 218$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.12 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 195.17$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.39 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 27c | 184$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 54c | 175$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.73 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Under | 53c | 114$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…d438backed Over | 60c | 105.34$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.01 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 67c | 86.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 47c | 86.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 39c | 72.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 48c | 61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60df…7092backed Under | 53c | 39.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f1…d83fbacked Over | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Under | 49c | 37.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea3…ab73backed Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Over | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 58c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 50c | 29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 53c | 22.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- Knicks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.