NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad3b4bb03b24705a61f231048434830b7988132dd609f34b9395a785a5f2736b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,142
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 8,215$4,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,351.71 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 47c | 8,000$3,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,239.98 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…9061backed Over | 46c | 4,652$2,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,512.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52bb…b391backed Over | 43c | 4,527$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da5…ab1bbacked Over | 46c | 4,203$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,269.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 47c | 4,148$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,198.44 | 584 | 49.7%290 W · 294 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0e…94fcbacked Over | 43c | 3,863$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…6118backed Over | 43c | 3,711$1,596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,115.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…5232backed Over | 43c | 3,624$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.68 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 51c | 3,001$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.57 | 165 | 50.9%84 W · 81 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 53c | 2,876$1,524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,524.28 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…1281backed Under | 57c | 2,654$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 2,128$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,128 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 47c | 2,127$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.31 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…fde9backed Under | 54c | 1,811$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -63%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x731f…2936backed Under | 54c | 1,755$948 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 1,661$837 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.64 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4d…4c9dbacked Under | 57c | 1,593$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 56c | 1,587$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.72 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…d433backed Under | 54c | 1,488$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…4ce4backed Under | 54c | 1,488$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…3924backed Under | 57c | 1,466$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.62 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dea…1b7cbacked Under | 57c | 1,458$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…06bebacked Under | 57c | 1,456$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee3…0fdbbacked Under | 57c | 1,407$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…02bebacked Under | 57c | 1,402$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 1,352$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.94 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff2…fe57backed Under | 57c | 1,293$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3523…a746backed Under | 54c | 1,255$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…642bbacked Under | 57c | 1,225$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 43c | 1,201$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.62 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8014…5959backed Under | 57c | 1,121$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f9…ed2abacked Under | 57c | 1,114$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$634.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd360…b4cfbacked Under | 57c | 1,079$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Under | 53c | 1,072$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…5685backed Under | 54c | 1,058$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 45c | 787.2$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.96 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Over | 47c | 617.7$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.27 | 89 | 61.8%55 W · 34 L | +8.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 501$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.49 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Under | 56c | 397.99$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.39 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 48c | 347.5$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.7 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 47c | 151.2$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.13 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 44c | 109$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 48c | 96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 90.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Under | 56c | 76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c55…c04bbacked Under | 57c | 75.42$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Over | 46c | 67.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 169 | 42.6%72 W · 97 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa184…e503backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 49.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…c482backed Under | 53c | 49.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa75d…1d45backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 223 | 47.1%105 W · 118 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddd…5042backed Over | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 157 | 58%91 W · 66 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…5dfabacked Under | 53c | 21.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5this page
- Knicks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.