NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4aee5383ebc09197d55d0980bc7566174dec9f4eb03c7b26c1cc693e5ab82ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,066
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,066 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1997…2e36backed Knicks | 46c | 11,000$5,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,060 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Warriors | 54c | 7,541$4,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,464.45 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Warriors | 54c | 7,314$3,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,351.78 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 51c | 2,695$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.07 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Warriors | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1052…53dabacked Knicks | 51c | 2,200$1,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,122 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cd…0888backed Knicks | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Warriors | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.99 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Knicks | 50c | 1,332$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.75 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Warriors | 54c | 1,306$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600.56 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2eb…e530backed Knicks | 44c | 1,145$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Knicks | 46c | 1,109$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.09 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 45c | 972$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8f…378ebacked Knicks | 46c | 764$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks | 46c | 763.26$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.1 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Knicks | 50c | 747.4$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.66 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Knicks | 35c | 651.57$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.75 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b8d…854cbacked Knicks | 51c | 642.59$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.46 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 53c | 641.26$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.72 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks | 45c | 597.75$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks | 39c | 400.08$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Knicks | 49c | 344$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.13 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Knicks | 47c | 317.02$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…2d91backed Warriors | 54c | 265$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Knicks | 45c | 262$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.9 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f2…51d9backed Warriors | 54c | 255$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ca…44cbbacked Warriors | 54c | 244$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Knicks | 49c | 191.34$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Knicks | 46c | 189.62$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.87 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Warriors | 57c | 172$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.28 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Warriors | 72c | 171.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Knicks | 62c | 162.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b4…b5e8backed Knicks | 48c | 156.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Warriors | 56c | 150$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Knicks | 21c | 142$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.37 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Knicks | 46c | 129.12$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 336 | 53.9%181 W · 155 L | +13.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks | 48c | 126$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.48 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 52c | 126$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Warriors | 54c | 121$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.66 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…0493backed Warriors | 53c | 113.58$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc535…6047backed Knicks | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 138 | 34.1%47 W · 91 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Warriors | 54c | 89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c55…c04bbacked Warriors | 55c | 72.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Warriors | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Knicks | 50c | 66.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Knicks | 20c | 64.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Warriors | 50c | 58.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 218 | 58.7%128 W · 90 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Knicks | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd62d…02ccbacked Warriors | 50c | 52.24$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 99 | 57.6%57 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Knicks | 47c | 51.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Warriors | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec1…dd29backed Knicks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 225 | 56.9%128 W · 97 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Warriors | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 165 | 46.1%76 W · 89 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…39a7backed Knicks | 45c | 34.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Knicks | 46c | 32.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Warriors | 59c | 32.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors | 65c | 30.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 47c | 30.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Warriors | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 273 | 53.8%147 W · 126 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x793d…278fbacked Knicks | 47c | 26.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Warriors | 48c | 25.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Warriors | 52c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Warriors | 58c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…a17ebacked Knicks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)this page
- Knicks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.