NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd7f69276c626e378da465e2c0ae81f9e4eb1ced7a4698d83b901de7bbdc1725
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Knicks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $53,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 54c | 27,290$14,695 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,594.98 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks | 46c | 20,903$9,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,697.47 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks | 46c | 8,275$3,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,766.06 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 62c | 4,613$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,775.62 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Warriors | 59c | 3,389$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,388.87 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Warriors | 51c | 2,300$1,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks | 38c | 2,038$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.21 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks | 46c | 1,300$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ae…bf54backed Warriors | 61c | 800$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 160 | 53.1%85 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Knicks | 40c | 734.99$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.52 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Knicks | 41c | 705.47$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.85 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Knicks | 37c | 621.13$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.06 | 194 | 34.5%67 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Knicks | 40c | 603.17$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.65 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee33…9a55backed Knicks | 65c | 459.97$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Knicks | 39c | 410$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.9 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5165…175bbacked Knicks | 41c | 400$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Warriors | 48c | 399.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56be…57eebacked Knicks | 51c | 337.25$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Knicks | 40c | 311$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.25 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Knicks | 45c | 300$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 807 | 44.1%356 W · 451 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Knicks | 46c | 291$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.56 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Knicks | 32c | 250.27$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Knicks | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Knicks | 40c | 242.69$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.48 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Warriors | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Warriors | 54c | 194.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.39 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Warriors | 57c | 169.46$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…a26fbacked Warriors | 78c | 160$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Warriors | 59c | 123$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.43 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Knicks | 51c | 104.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.93 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Warriors | 34c | 101.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.27 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef25…c969backed Warriors | 49c | 101.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Knicks | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Warriors | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Warriors | 60c | 98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…76e9backed Warriors | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…2bb4backed Warriors | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d90…cf08backed Knicks | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 199 | 40.7%81 W · 118 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 60c | 75.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…5a2cbacked Knicks | 50c | 72.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 246 | 53.3%131 W · 115 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcb…0047backed Knicks | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Knicks | 54c | 53.26$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Knicks | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Warriors | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb9…1591backed Warriors | 76c | 42.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Knicks | 40c | 38.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Knicks | 27c | 37.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Warriors | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Knicks | 41c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…cf85backed Knicks | 43c | 27.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Knicks | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3801…83ddbacked Knicks | 49c | 24.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa825…2ef0backed Warriors | 73c | 20.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…a34fbacked Warriors | 64c | 19.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x870c…7abfbacked Knicks | 66c | 16.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0685…2b0cbacked Warriors | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- Knicks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.