TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,643
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,068

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,643 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors53c15,303$8,063 inWon+$7,239.933,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks48c9,619$4,628 inLost-$4,627.562,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks47c5,637$2,631 inLost-$2,631.394,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks35c685.64$239 inLost-$238.586,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks31c448.24$139 inLost-$139.298,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a2…0a6abacked Warriors67c447.84$300 inWon+$147.844753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Knicks41c286$117 inLost-$117.2619434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Warriors65c215.38$140 inWon+$75.3833554.6%183 W · 152 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e75…e81dbacked Warriors64c205$131 inWon+$73.85152.9%27 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Warriors65c154.31$100 inWon+$54.311,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x058a…ed5cbacked Warriors46c140$64 inWon+$75.65040%20 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x454a…4039backed Warriors63c90$57 inWon+$33.34358.1%25 W · 18 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a09…76e9backed Warriors64c80$51 inWon+$28.87450%37 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df5…8f1bbacked Warriors65c76.92$50 inWon+$26.92250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-23.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Warriors64c74$47 inWon+$26.646160.7%37 W · 24 L+6.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd851…9305backed Warriors64c57$36 inWon+$20.524645.7%21 W · 25 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae28…5d17backed Warriors63c55$35 inWon+$20.353860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d35…3af0backed Knicks36c54.86$20 inLost-$204032.5%13 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1a…ad50backed Knicks36c51$18 inLost-$18.361442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Warriors51c46.55$24 inWon+$22.581,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a10…ff2cbacked Warriors65c46.15$30 inWon+$16.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Knicks31c45.88$14 inLost-$14.163,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…7959backed Knicks36c41$15 inLost-$14.762268.2%15 W · 7 L+4.1wins+0.19per pick50cpaid+35.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x07eb…4b4cbacked Knicks36c41$15 inLost-$14.763748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e26…c672backed Knicks36c41$15 inLost-$14.761855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4292…938dbacked Knicks36c41$15 inLost-$14.763540%14 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9fc…c985backed Knicks36c41$15 inLost-$14.761656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Knicks35c40$14 inLost-$1485147.5%404 W · 447 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Warriors65c40$26 inWon+$1431947.6%152 W · 167 L-18.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Knicks42c37.75$16 inLost-$16.043,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors62c33.57$21 inWon+$12.621,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaacc…23c6backed Knicks37c33$12 inLost-$12.212334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Warriors40c29.15$12 inWon+$17.495,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5400…dcaabacked Knicks60c29.15$17 inLost-$17.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9cc…57f0backed Warriors55c26.78$15 inWon+$12.05650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.