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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Warriors (-4.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Warriorsof Warriors, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,981
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,990

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,981 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors52c16,998$8,835 inWon+$8,162.573,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Knicks48c10,132$4,866 inLost-$4,866.222,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Knicks48c6,535$3,134 inLost-$3,133.694,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks40c2,013$812 inLost-$811.568,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Warriors60c1,667$1,000 inWon+$666.6714254.9%78 W · 64 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors60c1,486$892 inWon+$594.554,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Warriors59c566.69$334 inWon+$232.429,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Knicks49c508.08$249 inLost-$248.9619434.5%67 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-20%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1da8…2fdebacked Knicks40c359$144 inLost-$143.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee41…0848backed Warriors60c250$150 inWon+$1002100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Knicks39c212$83 inLost-$82.682,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Warriors55c210.41$115 inWon+$95.53,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef6…6a0abacked Warriors60c209$125 inWon+$83.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99b3…ed87backed Warriors60c200$120 inWon+$802100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Warriors51c174.11$89 inWon+$85.61,02947.7%491 W · 538 L-13.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Knicks49c94.93$47 inLost-$46.525,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Knicks43c88$38 inLost-$37.8435444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Knicks39c60.57$24 inLost-$23.623,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed6…bbabbacked Warriors60c41.67$25 inWon+$16.6732853%174 W · 154 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors58c29$17 inWon+$12.181,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Warriors59c29$17 inWon+$11.891,33251.2%682 W · 650 L+7.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks48c27.75$13 inLost-$13.323,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks41c25$10 inLost-$10.256,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.