NBA · resolved market
Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe80646667f0768232f8e7150bf97dfa23d10129ae110ad359a354979a3b630e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,324
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6f24…3f8cbacked Under | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 5,150$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.82 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 49c | 4,533$2,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,328.68 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 1,623$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.69 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 52c | 1,283$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2407…7dcabacked Under | 61c | 680.34$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.01 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 43c | 307.19$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.12 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 57c | 305$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.85 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 55c | 265$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 71c | 228.45$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 830 | 39.4%327 W · 503 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Over | 73c | 227.98$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 311 | 44.4%138 W · 173 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…b4a3backed Under | 57c | 155$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed Under | 58c | 111$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.38 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fc…ba9abacked Under | 58c | 110$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 40c | 65.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Under | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Under | 58c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…6ce6backed Under | 58c | 44$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Over | 43c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…c6ecbacked Over | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Over | 42c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9549…b936backed Under | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 51c | 29.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…bc16backed Over | 42c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5this page
- Knicks vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: 1H MoneylineWarriors won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 226.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 227.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 232.5Over won
- Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 233.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-4.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-6.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-7.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.