Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf00fc3ad31ee6a42df0f528c68f024187b223b545623885b05a41ad44b55f236
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan State Spartansof Kentucky Wildcats, Michigan State Spartans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,357
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,357 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c2a…c8c8backed Kentucky Wildcats | 65c | 38,913$25,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,190.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed Michigan State Spartans | 4c | 19,810$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,049.07 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +9.4wins | +0.47per pick | 38cpaid | +463.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x70c5…d130backed Kentucky Wildcats | 9c | 16,345$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 9cpaid | +525%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c39…8213backed Michigan State Spartans | 1c | 4,397$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,353.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.95per pick | 6cpaid | +5,400%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Kentucky Wildcats | 42c | 1,810$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.28 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Michigan State Spartans | 56c | 1,480$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.62 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan State Spartans | 58c | 1,306$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.28 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Michigan State Spartans | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +486.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 52c | 732.33$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.48 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -6.3wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kentucky Wildcats | 45c | 370$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Michigan State Spartans | 52c | 352.08$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a8…57d5backed Kentucky Wildcats | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kentucky Wildcats | 45c | 211.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Michigan State Spartans | 58c | 129.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kentucky Wildcats | 45c | 104.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Michigan State Spartans | 51c | 95.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 1,124 | 46.4%521 W · 603 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f1…d83fbacked Michigan State Spartans | 58c | 74.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Michigan State Spartans | 53c | 63$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed Michigan State Spartans | 57c | 62.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan State Spartans | 54c | 46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Michigan State Spartans | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 415 | 54.2%225 W · 190 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…5b88backed Kentucky Wildcats | 53c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Michigan State Spartans | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Michigan State Spartans | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb2…3bb5backed Michigan State Spartans | 59c | 26.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Kentucky Wildcats | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-5.5)this page
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State SpartansMichigan State Spartans won
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 152.5Under won
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 153.5Under won
- Kentucky Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 154.5Under won
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5)Michigan State Spartans won
- Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-4.5)Michigan State Spartans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.