NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc057cde15d840298bd53222f1b3429cac3341f41b0526067cb41276002f31296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Cavaliers, Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,626
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,626 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Cavaliers | 41c | 4,277$1,754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,753.68 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Cavaliers | 45c | 2,784$1,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,252.64 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 55c | 2,778$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,249.49 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Rockets | 59c | 2,542$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.37 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc071…c558backed Cavaliers | 42c | 1,600$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6b…943abacked Rockets | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.07 | 154 | 61.7%95 W · 59 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Rockets | 59c | 509.49$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.89 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…45d3backed Rockets | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 58c | 245.1$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Cavaliers | 41c | 199.97$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.99 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Rockets | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Rockets | 58c | 170$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Rockets | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebac…be55backed Rockets | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 121 | 53.7%65 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3289…4538backed Cavaliers | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 115.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 170 | 35.9%61 W · 109 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Rockets | 58c | 97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.74 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf139…1d3bbacked Rockets | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…8117backed Rockets | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x412c…43b4backed Cavaliers | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Cavaliers | 42c | 71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rockets | 58c | 63.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.54 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…7bb9backed Cavaliers | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 47cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d0…ed5dbacked Rockets | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Rockets | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…bdcdbacked Rockets | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…ed59backed Rockets | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…7050backed Rockets | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Rockets | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…0831backed Rockets | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 185 | 58.4%108 W · 77 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Cavaliers | 43c | 48.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…b3e8backed Cavaliers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a2…0c1abacked Cavaliers | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f1…d83fbacked Rockets | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Rockets | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -26%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x116b…adfdbacked Rockets | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9f…d2b9backed Rockets | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed Rockets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Rockets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed Rockets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c26…1dddbacked Rockets | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…c4dfbacked Rockets | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…6d11backed Rockets | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1d…1d22backed Rockets | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Rockets | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Rockets | 58c | 24.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-0.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. CavaliersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.