NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x994d20c2b661235970568c313eeebbb3fdba2a287de62216b7868c8b429d0944
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Cavaliers, Rockets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $88,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $88,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 83,050$38,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,908.37 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 53c | 42,570$22,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,935.67 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Rockets | 53c | 15,713$8,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,385.33 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Rockets | 53c | 10,072$5,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,710.26 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rockets | 53c | 4,970$2,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.9 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Rockets | 53c | 1,981$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.07 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938a…976fbacked Rockets | 56c | 1,600$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Rockets | 56c | 1,076$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.44 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Rockets | 53c | 1,037$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.39 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Rockets | 55c | 999.99$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Rockets | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Rockets | 57c | 684.16$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.19 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Rockets | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Rockets | 53c | 409.1$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.27 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Rockets | 59c | 298$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.28 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Rockets | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 156.82$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 150$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 377 | 50.4%190 W · 187 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Rockets | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Rockets | 54c | 133.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Cavaliers | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd457…9d8abacked Rockets | 57c | 123.86$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Rockets | 53c | 106.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Rockets | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261b…b32bbacked Rockets | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 65.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa89e…4ab4backed Rockets | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 157 | 59.9%94 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Cavaliers | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Cavaliers | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Cavaliers | 45c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Rockets | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b9…c9c8backed Rockets | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3552…f07bbacked Rockets | 56c | 35.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 168 | 49.4%83 W · 85 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f1…c325backed Rockets | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a4…05afbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2f…420ebacked Rockets | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-0.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. CavaliersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylineRockets won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.