NBA · resolved market
Rockets vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa970eab40fa37206262165810fd1b6492a8beec3f2485e33a56a69e3d1b3975c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rocketsof Rockets, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6754…e4fcbacked Cavaliers | 50c | 280$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Rockets | 49c | 268.57$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.75 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Cavaliers | 49c | 179$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.71 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +10.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…57ebbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 172$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +9.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 133$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Rockets | 52c | 97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.56 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92e3…c89ebacked Cavaliers | 52c | 96.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Rockets | 53c | 81.11$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.11 | 574 | 44.1%253 W · 321 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Rockets | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Rockets | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Rockets | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…3907backed Rockets | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Rockets | 51c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +31%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc39b…5754backed Rockets | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Rockets | 51c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 87 | 59.8%52 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Rockets | 50c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ab…b38dbacked Rockets | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc17…53b6backed Rockets | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Rockets (-0.5)Rockets won
- Rockets vs. CavaliersRockets won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Rockets vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Rockets won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Rockets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.