AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd702741256b921c6f05197664057a159ebea5376c0e72490d82ca8bcb622e82f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $153,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,356
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $153,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed Yes | 7c | 13,095$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.58 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1b…72fabacked Yes | 7c | 9,268$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.32 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 1c | 8,751$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3dc…c60ebacked Yes | 6c | 8,312$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 7,902$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 7,329$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 7c | 6,980$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.41 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 7c | 3,931$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.26 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked Yes | 8c | 3,676$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.43 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 7c | 3,064$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.74 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,859$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed Yes | 9c | 2,811$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.81 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 7c | 2,680$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.96 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,358$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…08a1backed Yes | 12c | 2,300$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 6c | 2,264$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed Yes | 5c | 2,215$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.21 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1605…43bfbacked Yes | 13c | 2,124$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.74 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 2,061$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,942$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.39 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 12c | 1,707$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.56 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,666$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.03 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 1,614$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x644e…ff58backed Yes | 13c | 1,404$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 1,402$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.32 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,280$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.69 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 1,243$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,205$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb4…f4c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,177$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.59 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…baedbacked Yes | 9c | 1,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 7c | 1,123$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.22 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48f3…104fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,012$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe0…4c7bbacked Yes | 9c | 999.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed No | 75c | 972.44$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.89 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 6c | 912.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.47 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 4c | 883.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 6c | 839$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 811.86$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 761.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1f…68f1backed Yes | 12c | 759.24$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 756.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 5c | 710.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 7c | 700$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 24c | 681.57$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a5…70a5backed Yes | 8c | 672.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 659.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 8c | 599.69$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.68 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…5f42backed Yes | 14c | 588.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…f507backed Yes | 9c | 582.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 504.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…5aafbacked Yes | 11c | 466.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 4c | 445.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 10c | 444.3$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +16.6wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…c0e8backed Yes | 5c | 437.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 7c | 410$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 9c | 333.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbde…c2e8backed Yes | 13c | 310.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ca11backed Yes | 14c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10a…ab03backed Yes | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…c336backed Yes | 7c | 296$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc815…434ebacked Yes | 7c | 285.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac0…3086backed Yes | 8c | 275.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…882fbacked Yes | 11c | 269.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a96…8331backed Yes | 14c | 253.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Yes | 9c | 232.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…abbfbacked Yes | 9c | 211.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89a7…e7dbbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +103%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af8…e723backed Yes | 9c | 183.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 11c | 170.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 12c | 168.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 7c | 166.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4075…36fdbacked Yes | 15c | 123.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03f1…9d49backed Yes | 10c | 114.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 102.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…ab75backed Yes | 10c | 101.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 20c | 96.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 21c | 59.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 77c | 51.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?Yes won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.