AI · resolved market
Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd9e1c1d5ecd458610ddc696aec3d96057fcb511f1b0636e2bc3273467c9c753
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8df…abd7backed No | 2c | 4,995$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.41 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 3cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,842$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 7c | 3,869$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.17 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed No | 9c | 3,389$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.87 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 9c | 2,929$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.02 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed No | 11c | 2,812$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.26 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 9c | 2,661$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.46 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 2c | 2,598$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked No | 8c | 2,588$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.09 | 55 | 3.6%2 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 11c | 2,287$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.71 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 13c | 2,106$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.37 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 10c | 2,074$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.88 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 6c | 2,047$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 8c | 2,044$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.14 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 1,800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 8c | 1,780$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 8c | 1,778$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.89 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 1,730$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.06 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 13c | 1,238$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.89 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 8c | 1,125$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.25 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 2c | 966.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 11c | 836.6$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 8c | 605.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 10c | 581.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.79 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6335…ca2bbacked No | 2c | 534.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 8c | 493.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked No | 9c | 487.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 72 | 4.2%3 W · 69 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 5c | 477.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed No | 7c | 472.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749f…9501backed No | 16c | 459.97$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 11c | 440.88$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 3c | 437.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed No | 14c | 424.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.43 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 14c | 298.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 13c | 250.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 13c | 226.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3a…7789backed No | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…67dabacked No | 11c | 185.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c59…7e7fbacked Yes | 58c | 173.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 11c | 171.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 20c | 168.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe30d…c0e8backed No | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 29c | 150$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 75c | 130.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed No | 48c | 127.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.76 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 13c | 126.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e46…607ebacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 79cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c94…47d3backed No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…ef15backed No | 11c | 92.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 39c | 44.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d38…2078backed Yes | 49c | 36.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a82…fe12backed Yes | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf863…076fbacked Yes | 73c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…b5ebbacked Yes | 75c | 23.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4b…90f5backed Yes | 61c | 20.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Mistral have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.