TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Lafayette Leopards vs. Boston Terriers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Boston Terriersof Lafayette Leopards, Boston Terriers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$67,714
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,872

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $67,714 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38c2…d3a7backed Boston Terriers54c3,734$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,734.2516056.9%91 W · 69 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c9e…663cbacked Lafayette Leopards73c3,702$2,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,714.15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.32per pick66cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Lafayette Leopards21c1,811$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.911,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a9…4763backed Lafayette Leopards30c1,768$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b4c…be98backed Lafayette Leopards30c1,537$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf339…bb59backed Lafayette Leopards31c1,510$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+40.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccc…252fbacked Lafayette Leopards30c1,421$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb13…a48abacked Lafayette Leopards30c1,313$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.9742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd533…e4edbacked Boston Terriers70c1,309$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Lafayette Leopards32c1,288$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.812,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6cc…6afcbacked Lafayette Leopards30c1,251$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb289…c1a4backed Lafayette Leopards30c1,212$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.6771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed2c…9597backed Boston Terriers66c1,212$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.0339744.8%178 W · 219 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9258…6458backed Lafayette Leopards30c1,211$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.3250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea28…1cabbacked Boston Terriers70c1,005$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93e0…9f02backed Lafayette Leopards31c999$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.69366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f02…12f5backed Lafayette Leopards1c985.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19a0…ac39backed Boston Terriers49c973.76$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.9118654.3%101 W · 85 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e1…8d70backed Lafayette Leopards32c956.9$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5af…e4debacked Lafayette Leopards31c949$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.19450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…14b6backed Lafayette Leopards31c924$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.44540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-38.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdddc…ced2backed Lafayette Leopards47c859.37$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4007839.7%31 W · 47 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5427…2935backed Boston Terriers70c804$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+55.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1c7…9209backed Boston Terriers69c764$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.84560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0c…9e2cbacked Boston Terriers70c752$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9142…22c0backed Boston Terriers69c746$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.26580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3740…fffcbacked Boston Terriers70c741$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.36100%6 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+66.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe4d4…de0cbacked Boston Terriers70c736$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.8850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x669a…9f3fbacked Boston Terriers70c712$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.28per pick57cpaid+42.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Boston Terriers65c709.89$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4699045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d20…07ecbacked Boston Terriers70c680$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2141…68f9backed Boston Terriers70c601$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.3666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Lafayette Leopards34c585.3$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19913444%59 W · 75 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc36…827abacked Boston Terriers69c579$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lafayette Leopards35c548.8$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92f4…b7bbbacked Boston Terriers69c534$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb70…0785backed Boston Terriers70c532$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+16.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc383…c054backed Boston Terriers65c528.28$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5419057.4%109 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b81…5af0backed Lafayette Leopards30c513$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2849…0cd8backed Boston Terriers77c506.7$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.65862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick73cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed9d…517dbacked Boston Terriers69c483$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.73475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0be3…7180backed Boston Terriers70c476$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x455e…1fcfbacked Boston Terriers69c466$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.46450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b49…9c03backed Boston Terriers69c465$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Boston Terriers68c461.95$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8149345.4%224 W · 269 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0068…12d2backed Boston Terriers70c459$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x874b…2357backed Boston Terriers70c459$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1066…7849backed Boston Terriers70c447$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b6b…34d8backed Lafayette Leopards66c428.45$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Boston Terriers17c428.13$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.2794036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x882c…a26fbacked Boston Terriers38c400$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2505545.5%25 W · 30 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Lafayette Leopards47c394$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.5249747.5%236 W · 261 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Lafayette Leopards32c380.23$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.2613842.8%59 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lafayette Leopards49c375$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.161,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b61…0cebbacked Lafayette Leopards29c364$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.56650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Lafayette Leopards38c348.1$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.074,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7db…95babacked Boston Terriers69c345$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a66…f4c4backed Boston Terriers70c325$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Lafayette Leopards33c310$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.326740.8%109 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19f8…98f9backed Boston Terriers67c298.51$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.5148462.8%304 W · 180 L-0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8126…9d18backed Boston Terriers71c282.01$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.013345.5%15 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Boston Terriers58c264$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.462,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lafayette Leopards56c255.18$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.595,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Lafayette Leopards38c217.8$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.991,53150.1%767 W · 764 L+34.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dbc…18a0backed Boston Terriers65c213.86$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.864656.5%26 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Boston Terriers67c212.46$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.1181453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xce97…cd59backed Boston Terriers71c206$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.74875%6 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6782…8f58backed Boston Terriers71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Boston Terriers44c196.48$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3732343%139 W · 184 L-18.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x48ff…106ebacked Boston Terriers70c188$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22c6…50c6backed Lafayette Leopards25c183.02$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.682524%6 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Lafayette Leopards32c179.91$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9336845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4352…91b6backed Lafayette Leopards71c153.72$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24fe…30d5backed Lafayette Leopards65c152.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Lafayette Leopards35c140.14$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.8397447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Lafayette Leopards29c139$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3112846.9%60 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lafayette Leopards35c132.89$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.11,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf2…d280backed Boston Terriers73c121.92$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.9225544.3%113 W · 142 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe292…a29dbacked Boston Terriers48c121.88$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.873855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcaf8…3397backed Lafayette Leopards40c120.13$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Boston Terriers23c108.19$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.564,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Lafayette Leopards50c106.52$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.873,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Lafayette Leopards30c106$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.041,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2838…32bbbacked Lafayette Leopards78c99.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$782369.6%16 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick68cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63ba…a7cebacked Lafayette Leopards49c99.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Lafayette Leopards36c98.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.991,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fa7…089dbacked Lafayette Leopards34c87$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.589851%50 W · 48 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Lafayette Leopards33c78.85$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2635050.3%176 W · 174 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Lafayette Leopards23c78.17$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.36260%0 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Lafayette Leopards68c75$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.2144146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a0…a458backed Lafayette Leopards27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2512617.5%22 W · 104 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-46.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2c…787cbacked Lafayette Leopards33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.7522552.9%119 W · 106 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Lafayette Leopards50c73.21$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.437812.8%10 W · 68 L-17.2wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-78.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Lafayette Leopards33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.144955.2%248 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lafayette Leopards33c66.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.21,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Boston Terriers48c62.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4323544.7%105 W · 130 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Boston Terriers66c60.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.64,55250.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L-36.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed Boston Terriers69c57.97$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.973568.6%24 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdeb4…9854backed Boston Terriers35c57.95$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.953036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid+34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61a3…b1e5backed Lafayette Leopards36c55.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202227.3%6 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.