Middle East · resolved market
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc581417b3befd12a160d0fbfcf641fbf247fbe99f946297961d7b17bf1b1c3b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,158,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,102,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,158,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…b380backed Yes | 0c | 145,079$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.44 | 67 | 3%2 W · 65 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 1c | 91,061$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.38 | 104 | 26%27 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 1c | 63,038$749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$749.38 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 1c | 63,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.48 | 112 | 8.9%10 W · 102 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +149.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0891…508abacked Yes | 2c | 60,060$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.42per pick | 24cpaid | +251.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 1c | 56,939$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.65 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc3…caccbacked Yes | 1c | 39,145$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked Yes | 2c | 35,278$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.69 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 1c | 23,579$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.76 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…05d0backed Yes | 0c | 22,086$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.33 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 19,211$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.51 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 1c | 13,962$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.98 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 1c | 13,919$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.69 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 19cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 1c | 13,804$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 1c | 13,216$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 12,601$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.46 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db0…b339backed Yes | 0c | 9,061$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 2c | 7,464$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.16 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 6,926$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…666ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,312$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1804…1b4dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,232$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 2c | 6,000$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.1 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 1c | 5,070$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.06 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 1c | 4,919$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 1c | 4,510$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,020$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…262abacked Yes | 1c | 3,301$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 3c | 2,712$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 241 | 49.4%119 W · 122 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e6…fd30backed Yes | 4c | 2,501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbf…066bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd821…e681backed Yes | 2c | 2,493$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +170.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 2c | 2,374$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48aa…fccdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,062$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x324d…73c8backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 1c | 1,897$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4226…2665backed Yes | 1c | 1,763$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 289 | 43.6%126 W · 163 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7d…4d56backed Yes | 2c | 1,670$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd95…8c17backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,599$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31c…e376backed Yes | 1c | 1,583$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 1c | 1,491$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 3c | 1,434$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.28 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df3…aa20backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 3c | 1,020$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff1…72ebbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 2c | 999.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…9b71backed Yes | 1c | 992.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked Yes | 2c | 942.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…aba8backed Yes | 1c | 924.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d2…c042backed Yes | 2c | 756.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 755.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 2c | 755$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 169 | 61.5%104 W · 65 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4f…d0f6backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf134…2322backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…500bbacked Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 5c | 399.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb194…1063backed Yes | 4c | 352$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0013…3c30backed Yes | 5c | 230.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 87 | 21.8%19 W · 68 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x826a…bf87backed Yes | 7c | 150.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.