AI · resolved market
Will Grok be the next CEO of X?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ad81d4d04d3f3a60bbb59d03a4f8a1c04b8e8c28a6fca0e5b8684f78ebb593
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $576,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $576,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 7,640$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 7,555$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 58 | 0%0 W · 58 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…82d4backed Yes | 2c | 7,050$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…b9b5backed Yes | 2c | 7,010$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bc…c043backed Yes | 5c | 6,806$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d9…f87dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,387$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…a86ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,102$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed Yes | 0c | 3,514$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 3c | 3,500$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 2,250$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8406…26b0backed Yes | 1c | 1,934$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…173abacked Yes | 6c | 1,717$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57aa…04c5backed Yes | 1c | 1,711$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,652$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 1c | 1,584$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfde6…0329backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,457$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59cb…0722backed Yes | 3c | 862.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b19…94b8backed Yes | 23c | 796.56$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 2c | 702$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6f35backed Yes | 5c | 607.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a52…6d47backed Yes | 3c | 584.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 2cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 5c | 566.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 549.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…9528backed Yes | 4c | 541.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5348…e4ffbacked Yes | 6c | 420.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…d786backed Yes | 2c | 411.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…a0e1backed Yes | 6c | 341.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 281.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9d…bb71backed Yes | 5c | 230$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 51c | 208.12$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.56 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 6c | 174.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…7c14backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Grok be the next CEO of X?this page
- Will David Sacks be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Elon Musk be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Gwynne Shotwell be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Jack Dorsey be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will John Legere be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will John Nitti be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Keith Coleman be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Mahmoud Reza Banki be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Marissa Mayer be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will MrBeast be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Nikita Bier be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Sheryl Sandberg be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Sriram Krishnan be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will Susan Wojcicki be the next CEO of X?No won
- Will no CEO be announced in 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.