Fed Rates · resolved market
10-year Treasury yield >4.4% Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29b202410dc523b300b7a356847d52b5eb543ef428e43946f356dd59b8d58281
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,060
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Yes | 75c | 1,629$1,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 14c | 1,315$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 28c | 999.97$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…012dbacked Yes | 58c | 851.31$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8add…fc2abacked No | 41c | 799.99$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbc…4f9dbacked No | 41c | 610.89$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd2…9cccbacked Yes | 58c | 500$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…09c4backed No | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 59c | 412.22$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.25 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed No | 46c | 359.01$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 57c | 243.44$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x841a…1dc2backed Yes | 79c | 200.15$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd042…7198backed Yes | 76c | 132.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…2df3backed No | 8c | 126$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 68c | 125.13$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…b932backed Yes | 54c | 110.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcffc…bcbcbacked No | 44c | 110$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 33c | 92.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x927d…13a7backed Yes | 59c | 85.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 45c | 67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 59c | 60.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 123 | 22.8%28 W · 95 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…7690backed Yes | 59c | 49.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Yes | 75c | 42.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x088b…3a58backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…33bebacked Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x187e…4987backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 107 | 13.1%14 W · 93 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…b071backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -82%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05af…9cc6backed Yes | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.