China Taiwan · resolved market
Will United States win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaf05ede01e068f0a53a3a56180f39fff14a1f0480ad2f763acc9a1f5ba1f85a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7504…9c69backed Yes | 38c | 2,601$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…c4edbacked Yes | 29c | 1,278$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 773.52$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.53 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 60c | 585$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440d…55e6backed No | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 333.62$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 61c | 250$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed No | 62c | 248$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde70…81fdbacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 26c | 145$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Yes | 16c | 144$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…82cebacked Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…319dbacked No | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 25c | 116.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…fe45backed Yes | 31c | 106.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 34c | 87.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +344%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 66c | 82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f5…1d9bbacked Yes | 33c | 70$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f00…7e3cbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c70…e930backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06fc…4fb6backed Yes | 34c | 36.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will United States win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?this page
- Will China win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?Yes won
- Will South Korea win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?No won
- Will Vietnam win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.