China Taiwan · resolved market
Will China win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3eb1335226a35ea4681f0fbd476da86f9ffd7b5e90d186fd82e072ede45dbbcd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed No | 19c | 2,113$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…c4edbacked No | 33c | 1,154$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba4…c08bbacked Yes | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…e446backed Yes | 73c | 866$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 31c | 839$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 35c | 714$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 25c | 693$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.08 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…ef80backed Yes | 67c | 625.49$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 62c | 591$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 49c | 542.23$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.74 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 500$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 19c | 490.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e5…c8ebbacked Yes | 58c | 490$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 46c | 476.78$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee4…3485backed Yes | 64c | 472.12$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 26c | 400.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc840…63c2backed Yes | 67c | 385$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 39c | 350$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 58c | 320.39$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 7c | 310$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Yes | 68c | 305$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 74c | 300$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed Yes | 70c | 284.85$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…fa80backed Yes | 71c | 253.13$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 63c | 238.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 47c | 212.76$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe408…232bbacked Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 196.44$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x136a…319dbacked Yes | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 62c | 160.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +220.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cc…f848backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c9…02ffbacked Yes | 75c | 157.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 53c | 149.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed Yes | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 60c | 135.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…64bdbacked Yes | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 53c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 21c | 107.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…1a00backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 30c | 96.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…32b3backed No | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 47c | 62.23$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…4b76backed Yes | 76c | 52.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…0b8fbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc542…231bbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 36c | 48.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +344%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d1…d3eebacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 70c | 44.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 56c | 44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa353…55c1backed Yes | 71c | 42.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c70…e930backed No | 50c | 41.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26df…8211backed Yes | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0306…e85cbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74eb…fe45backed No | 35c | 32.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f47…e5f0backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…9c69backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x295c…a424backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will China win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?this page
- Will South Korea win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?No won
- Will United States win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?No won
- Will Vietnam win the 2025 International Math Olympiad?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.