Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x06b6df9f89147714f1ec7b41c85d94e63f056866627d0a8c515e8ac0e04c5596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 40c | 5,452$2,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,256.01 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 50c | 2,988$1,494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,493.54 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 2,602$1,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,569.64 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 53c | 2,540$1,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.66 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 33c | 2,357$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.91 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 37c | 1,913$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,210.24 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 40c | 1,437$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.96 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 39c | 865.3$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 39c | 599.69$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.31 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 37c | 513.14$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbab…2cd0backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 29c | 471.15$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.87 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 39c | 411.56$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 58c | 391.13$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.59 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 41c | 367.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 36c | 297.53$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 60c | 210.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.17 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 56c | 206.8$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.69 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 61c | 145.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 44c | 144.57$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 32c | 143.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 39c | 130.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 48c | 114.28$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 105$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.45 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…a540backed No | 55c | 82$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 64c | 76.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked Yes | 43c | 71.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 42c | 61.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…98f0backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 61c | 50.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…3d4dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…7aecbacked Yes | 44c | 45.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +126.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa83…b49cbacked No | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 61c | 44.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 54c | 44.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 38c | 38.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…aff6backed Yes | 38c | 32.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…5129backed Yes | 38c | 27.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…6adbbacked Yes | 43c | 25.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be1…be84backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $5.00 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.5 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.5-4.75 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.75-5.00 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.