Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc4cdb10426216b17912fee2f4aaaa3d588634f4ca10054ad759b10c89ab5d5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,000
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 10c | 6,108$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.96 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 8c | 5,868$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Yes | 11c | 5,623$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 10c | 4,543$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.01 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 11c | 2,225$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.11 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 2,016$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 10c | 1,610$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Yes | 10c | 1,359$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -73%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 13c | 999.16$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…b593backed Yes | 10c | 798.3$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 8c | 559.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 15c | 512.64$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a63…2eb3backed Yes | 11c | 366.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed Yes | 9c | 342.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 11c | 284$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 167$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d50…a46ebacked Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d1…84cbbacked No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 58cpaid | +52%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…2b5fbacked Yes | 40c | 50.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 60c | 25.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $5.00 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.5 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.5-4.75 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.75-5.00 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.