Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x530a6b3ebaf485f7f68755df3ab651ebf134c52fecce813817055de90cd36b2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 23c | 9,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.98 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.19per pick | 29cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 20c | 4,198$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.62 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcce2…d58bbacked Yes | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed No | 79c | 3,162$2,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.53 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 26c | 3,000$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.17 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 2,200$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.98 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 1,888$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.06 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 20c | 1,420$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 1,403$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,269$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 27c | 505.04$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -88.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 25c | 440.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 30c | 351.96$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 27c | 346$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…3186backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 65c | 194.4$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 23c | 186.45$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…cd99backed Yes | 27c | 183.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 29c | 170.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 27c | 161.4$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 26c | 139.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 33c | 117.07$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5d…7cadbacked No | 74c | 103.87$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 74c | 101$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.26 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaba…5c9ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 66.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…5129backed Yes | 24c | 55.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47b7…c5babacked Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 27c | 52.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked No | 76c | 49.26$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 69c | 48.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 68c | 39.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…6582backed No | 78c | 38.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b24…01abbacked No | 76c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed No | 75c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +83.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7732…fa11backed No | 75c | 17.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4-4.25 in June?this page
- Will a dozen eggs be above $5.00 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be below $3.50 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.5-3.75 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $3.75-4 in June?Yes won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.25-4.5 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.5-4.75 in June?No won
- Will a dozen eggs be between $4.75-5.00 in June?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.