Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid hit $50 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39efde1b14616410a489421214c05ba5dd62fc1a16481a1003b82c8d9bac9a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,193
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,193 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 11,173$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.92 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 18c | 8,677$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,529.95 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fc…ce0bbacked No | 17c | 7,915$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.16 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb7…33aebacked No | 24c | 4,360$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 17c | 3,193$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.06 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe5…0309backed No | 17c | 3,000$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.79 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 24c | 2,512$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.81 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…1cf4backed No | 5c | 2,441$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5971…230abacked No | 17c | 2,084$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 25c | 1,900$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -9.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…0830backed No | 12c | 1,686$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.04 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d4…ab32backed No | 14c | 1,524$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca2…134fbacked No | 18c | 1,330$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked No | 22c | 1,286$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.57 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x247e…128fbacked No | 7c | 1,080$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked Yes | 80c | 999.99$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…6c9abacked Yes | 77c | 884.45$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…fa80backed No | 5c | 881.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +58%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…879ebacked No | 27c | 742.5$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 31c | 641.4$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…d1cabacked No | 10c | 535$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0136…8e5dbacked No | 10c | 392.28$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9de…905ebacked No | 12c | 379.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed No | 25c | 346.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…8aa2backed Yes | 79c | 325$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5e…450ebacked No | 7c | 283.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…00b6backed No | 15c | 271.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 22c | 251.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.04 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x771d…440ebacked No | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…346cbacked No | 18c | 233.78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…906fbacked No | 6c | 233.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…7b83backed No | 10c | 209.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 76c | 197.83$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…a653backed No | 7c | 185.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad21…cefcbacked No | 27c | 183.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0926…51dabacked No | 8c | 172.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -86%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb64…181ebacked No | 15c | 165$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…0a1dbacked No | 10c | 160.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…3b37backed Yes | 74c | 147.31$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3f…57bdbacked Yes | 76c | 131.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce9…9e9cbacked Yes | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 22c | 100.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked No | 16c | 99.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a9…2b86backed Yes | 74c | 94.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 27c | 71.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca86…911dbacked No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf149…21b9backed Yes | 76c | 59.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e93…1621backed Yes | 80c | 43.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8788…8aa8backed Yes | 79c | 34.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 44cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca4…3bcbbacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe073…18d9backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 78c | 28.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…224fbacked Yes | 76c | 26.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x63bf…4befbacked Yes | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked Yes | 76c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.