Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7f7973a0ee75f5eb8604dc596d69e7a579ebb205bab903f252047f1a53b5dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $92,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0063…765ebacked Yes | 14c | 15,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 1c | 7,918$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 13c | 7,732$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,024.59 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…c7c3backed Yes | 1c | 4,681$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…6d3ebacked No | 79c | 3,902$3,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 3,804$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,749$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.42 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed Yes | 0c | 2,665$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,174$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked No | 77c | 2,059$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 18c | 1,479$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No | 79c | 1,229$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.33 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x049a…b22abacked Yes | 10c | 1,215$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.67 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…22b7backed Yes | 34c | 1,080$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa720…e62cbacked Yes | 21c | 1,000$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 21c | 997.89$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.81 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81a…eec2backed Yes | 19c | 967.29$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…81e2backed Yes | 21c | 960.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…7e9dbacked Yes | 3c | 943.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…42e7backed Yes | 8c | 916.9$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 75c | 748.74$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…b5d0backed Yes | 37c | 668.3$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 79c | 632.98$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.32 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 511.95$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.27 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 409.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Yes | 20c | 399.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 18c | 390.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 17c | 336$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 72c | 271.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…9093backed Yes | 17c | 258.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…fc4bbacked Yes | 39c | 255.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9894…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 217.06$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c3…58fdbacked Yes | 11c | 190.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 166.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…372abacked Yes | 17c | 153.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9910…f830backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 30c | 133.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked No | 75c | 132.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…2e3cbacked No | 76c | 130.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.83 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 123.5$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 20c | 118.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…5403backed Yes | 21c | 107$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…ceaabacked Yes | 21c | 103$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…9d41backed Yes | 39c | 85.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…0165backed No | 80c | 83.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 16c | 80.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…ea84backed Yes | 25c | 79.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 19c | 78.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a5…6b7dbacked Yes | 20c | 76.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…4767backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…6ff5backed Yes | 15c | 67.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.22per pick | 23cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc58c…1359backed Yes | 24c | 58.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 19c | 55.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 73c | 37.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c8…5ababacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1904…23d3backed No | 80c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.