Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b137a04ffe1bb844c52405a87c51fc9d4c60ba57791d08b7ff6cdc75e1a9ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,643
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 60c | 3,237$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 38c | 2,252$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 31c | 2,022$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,387.84 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84ee…df72backed Yes | 77c | 1,438$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e8…ee73backed Yes | 75c | 1,337$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3105…1493backed Yes | 75c | 1,138$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc2…98a6backed Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 31c | 982.65$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…672fbacked Yes | 69c | 747.3$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 30c | 737.91$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.46 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…2e3cbacked Yes | 45c | 669.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.92 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…969dbacked Yes | 77c | 647.09$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.65 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…908abacked Yes | 73c | 615.84$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939c…ad45backed Yes | 59c | 586.04$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed7c…9400backed Yes | 38c | 581.55$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +166%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 55c | 529.68$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8850…1972backed Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cae…1537backed Yes | 58c | 490$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7bcbbacked Yes | 46c | 413.94$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…7e9dbacked Yes | 64c | 412.29$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9fa…dd8abacked Yes | 54c | 378.24$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c6…bf81backed Yes | 46c | 352.01$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 57c | 340.39$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.98 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 16c | 320.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…80fdbacked Yes | 36c | 313.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…6e2abacked Yes | 50c | 302.87$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…eb16backed Yes | 79c | 254.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf82…5003backed Yes | 60c | 248.69$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 21c | 194.61$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…ad75backed Yes | 56c | 178.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 67c | 152.62$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 39c | 125$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…8748backed Yes | 42c | 120.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.24 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +8.2wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 62c | 116.67$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 44c | 114.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked Yes | 44c | 113.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb18f…41eabacked Yes | 43c | 111.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 65c | 111$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.15 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 31c | 107.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd680…2251backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…5129backed No | 27c | 99.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked No | 70c | 94.95$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.23 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…10b3backed Yes | 39c | 88.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3976…d18dbacked Yes | 80c | 81.6$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…ea84backed Yes | 39c | 77.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 43c | 76.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 32c | 71.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6402…2fa1backed Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb662…375dbacked Yes | 42c | 64.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…b92bbacked Yes | 79c | 62.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7295…fc62backed Yes | 66c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed No | 64c | 56.3$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…a64cbacked Yes | 38c | 53.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 33c | 52.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dc…c45bbacked Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 47.73$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1e…79d5backed Yes | 53c | 46.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…a840backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…0d3abacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…f59dbacked Yes | 49c | 40.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b76…7180backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe3…00b9backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 47c | 32.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked No | 59c | 31.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480b…9b18backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ee…0991backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6904…6058backed Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…8a3abacked Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ec…4775backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69df…d918backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +61%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5542…1c67backed Yes | 54c | 20.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…4c85backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abd…f2f0backed Yes | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked No | 57c | 19.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4064…c34abacked No | 61c | 18.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…7cdabacked No | 59c | 17.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 73c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fd…5541backed Yes | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.