Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9274f0d03d3ac85a150d2001bc4e08a9b94e5c9a8635b51f6598d2fa8b9e0d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,344
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,344 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 12c | 10,225$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,216.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9983…4889backed Yes | 9c | 7,285$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe362…7430backed Yes | 7c | 6,660$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed No | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…f672backed Yes | 22c | 4,582$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc16…03b9backed Yes | 18c | 4,404$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cee…a307backed Yes | 0c | 3,937$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 13c | 3,750$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 3,518$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…d0b6backed Yes | 1c | 3,017$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,977$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa510…1f80backed Yes | 5c | 2,538$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3b…febfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,759$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc2…291dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x314a…2fbdbacked Yes | 29c | 1,492$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…657fbacked No | 79c | 1,313$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa04…40f1backed Yes | 20c | 1,215$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 1,196$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…1cd5backed Yes | 8c | 1,189$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85f5…ada8backed Yes | 1c | 1,179$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 6c | 1,148$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…18abbacked Yes | 11c | 1,121$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 18c | 999.52$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 997.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 14c | 926.68$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed Yes | 19c | 921.27$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.54 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff16…7511backed No | 71c | 899.99$641 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…2e3cbacked Yes | 15c | 873.28$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 8c | 787.25$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c3…58fdbacked Yes | 4c | 735.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…a53fbacked Yes | 5c | 728.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…7e9dbacked Yes | 2c | 684.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…6e2abacked Yes | 16c | 640.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…775fbacked Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a31…9d41backed Yes | 19c | 518.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +73%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked Yes | 16c | 479$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22a…8259backed Yes | 21c | 474.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d2…fc10backed Yes | 10c | 460$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff8…2da5backed Yes | 15c | 426.32$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 7c | 358.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 8c | 333.61$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…10b3backed Yes | 13c | 326.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91a1…57b9backed No | 77c | 299$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Yes | 5c | 283.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 18c | 275.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 44cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 21c | 250$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 15c | 241.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed Yes | 20c | 202.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec41…1134backed Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 13c | 189.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…8885backed Yes | 13c | 157.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…4275backed Yes | 8c | 154.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 153.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes | 48c | 130$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4116…e3fabacked Yes | 17c | 120.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f7…98afbacked Yes | 17c | 115.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f51…0d3abacked Yes | 17c | 115.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 15c | 114.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…f957backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…fe06backed Yes | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed Yes | 19c | 103.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…ae77backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb225…be11backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe356…437ebacked Yes | 23c | 89.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4e…c825backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d68…c379backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 54c | 54.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed No | 78c | 52.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47a1…22abbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed No | 80c | 46.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeed0…1496backed Yes | 48c | 41.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.