Token Launches · resolved market
Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60fa10c3691bca03ca9581bfe6362b009d8cb00844cb10ad59dbbd8e9ce8a2af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0063…765ebacked Yes | 17c | 40,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,899.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…d31ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Yes | 24c | 5,455$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,303.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3c…b218backed Yes | 33c | 3,683$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 18c | 2,082$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.32 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…ce1bbacked Yes | 35c | 2,034$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Yes | 21c | 1,986$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.19 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.2wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 23c | 1,700$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.79 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4739…26ebbacked Yes | 31c | 1,634$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e28…1cd5backed No | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…fedebacked Yes | 45c | 1,199$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee8…621ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,148$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.98 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…d6c1backed Yes | 33c | 1,087$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 23c | 874.99$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.25 | 104 | 62.5%65 W · 39 L | +13.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…7e9dbacked Yes | 29c | 685.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 10c | 682.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 5c | 638.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 69c | 631.98$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.15 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed No | 69c | 623.1$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.91 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecca…1cb1backed Yes | 2c | 620.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…42e7backed Yes | 33c | 544.46$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.95 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -79%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked Yes | 39c | 507.46$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 27c | 455.99$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…8f16backed Yes | 30c | 450$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 446.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.94 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 11c | 420.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.46 | 204 | 22.1%45 W · 159 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0998…a6bdbacked Yes | 27c | 364.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 28c | 351.36$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe903…6adbbacked Yes | 29c | 347.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd344…c966backed Yes | 11c | 290$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc82e…9460backed Yes | 17c | 287.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ff…908abacked Yes | 42c | 283.04$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dad…81e2backed Yes | 36c | 280.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…22b7backed Yes | 21c | 249.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…9093backed Yes | 32c | 248.34$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 204.59$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.12 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd697…def2backed Yes | 29c | 175.41$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0812…a9b4backed Yes | 31c | 161.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9503…c47fbacked Yes | 31c | 158.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb18f…41eabacked Yes | 31c | 154$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 28c | 147.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 54c | 140$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…2c1ebacked Yes | 25c | 135.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86db…2e3cbacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…f59dbacked Yes | 31c | 128.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 31c | 125$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 56c | 124.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…c22dbacked Yes | 17c | 114.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 71c | 107.47$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -15.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…1334backed Yes | 35c | 105$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…aa43backed Yes | 34c | 102.18$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 33c | 100.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…4767backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.25per pick | 61cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +11.3wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 37c | 80.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 22c | 60.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 195 | 43.1%84 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b74…e8d7backed No | 71c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…ea84backed Yes | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2622…cd2cbacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6948…e801backed Yes | 45c | 38.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…5129backed No | 71c | 32.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a0…5818backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 72c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $6-8B one day after launch?this page
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) $4-6B one day after launch?Yes won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) <$4B one day after launch?No won
- Pump.fun market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.