Movies · resolved market
Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc577cd78aca24b0179ddb4c14df407de103cace12c3ec822fe3be5ed20565ead
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,343
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,343 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x48df…fd58backed No | 0c | 28,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 50c | 4,671$2,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,324.1 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed No | 55c | 2,000$1,107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,107.19 | 166 | 24.1%40 W · 126 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 6c | 1,594$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.17 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bed…4eb5backed No | 1c | 1,575$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…b49cbacked No | 2c | 1,210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…1dadbacked No | 60c | 996.43$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 45c | 411.36$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.25 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…f1ffbacked No | 11c | 403.61$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 72c | 361.24$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed No | 11c | 177.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…c3c5backed Yes | 33c | 152.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.43 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 43cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe36d…6b21backed Yes | 67c | 149.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a6…3133backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 33c | 80$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.75 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…1377backed No | 37c | 66.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 72c | 63.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9212…2ff6backed No | 67c | 62.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.81 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…c6c4backed No | 67c | 50.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb01b…e951backed No | 44c | 45.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…562cbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 67c | 42.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc82f…fe06backed Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…2cd1backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66a…197fbacked No | 53c | 22.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 30?this page
- Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be 70 or higher?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 30–39?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 40–49?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 50–59?No won
- Will "Smurfs" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60–69?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.